A Lebanon without expat transfers

In a country where the state has all but vanished from the concerns and priorities of its citizens, Lebanese expatriates have, over the past years, turned into a kind of “alternative state”: feeding their families, paying for education, securing medicine and medical care, and keeping entire households afloat families that simply could not have survived without the money flowing from abroad.

But a pressing question now looms over Lebanon, as external economic pressures intensify: What happens if one day this “financial oxygen” stops? How does an economy built on external inflows endure? And how do hundreds of thousands of families survive without their only safety net?

For years, remittances have played a central role in keeping Lebanese society and its economy alive. These billions of dollars sent annually have become a social safety net for countless families, covering essential living expenses and ensuring basic resilience. Economically, they represent the most stable source of fresh dollars entering the country a lifeline for a nation that imports more than 80% of its basic needs, easing currency volatility and prolonging what little “relative stability” remains.

The pillar holding up a fractured economy

Economic expert and professor Jassem Ajaka tells The Beiruter that remittance inflows in 2024 ranged between $5.8 billion, according to the World Bank, and $6.8 billion according to the BDL. These figures, he explains, represent an exceptionally high share of Lebanon’s GDP around 25% according to BDL, and 17.7% based on World Bank data.

He notes that the figure peaked at 35.5% in 2023, a direct consequence of the sharp contraction of Lebanon’s nominal per-capita GDP during the crisis.

Remittances remain one of the main pillars of the Lebanese economy, injecting billions into a market desperately in need of hard currency. They have supported what remains of the banking system’s basic functions, sustained limited foreign investment, and indirectly helped the state through dollar inflows that finance imports of fuel, food, and medicine.

Ajaka adds:“In 2024 alone, remittances covered roughly 55% of Lebanon’s trade deficit.”

Most transfers now bypass the banking sector, moving through money-transfer companies and cash channels keeping Lebanon’s informal cash economy supplied with fresh dollars.

A safety net for families on the edge

In a country where economic hardship dominates everyday life, remittances have become far more than financial transactions. They are acts of responsibility, loyalty, and fear that loved ones will be left alone in a collapsing system.

Ajaka stresses their social role: “They have become an essential safety net for families, covering part of their basic expenses and compensating for the dramatic loss in purchasing power. Many families would simply have no means of survival without them.”

This is true for hundreds of thousands of expatriates whose lives have been reshaped by the crisis.

Lebanese expat Sami Haddad tells The Beiruter: “I left in 2017 to save money, buy a home in Lebanon, and start a family. But when the crisis hit, everything changed.

My father, a lifelong public-sector employee, saw his salary drop to $200 barely enough for food. So the money I was saving for a home now goes entirely to support my parents.”

His priorities shifted to food, medication, and dignity: “All I want is for my parents not to feel that their lives have collapsed, especially at their age. But there is no state to protect them. The expat has become the ‘alternative state’ for those inside.”

“Open Your Account”… why not in Lebanon?

Egypt recently launched the “Open Your Account” initiative, allowing expatriates to open bank accounts in three days through embassies and consulates encouraging remittances through formal channels and domestic investment.

Lebanon stands at the opposite end of this spectrum.

Following the collapse of the banking system and the seizure of deposits, Lebanese expatriates avoid the banks entirely, relying on cash transfers simply to guarantee survival for their families. The distrust is not only in banks but in the state itself.

Rebuilding trust requires structural action, including:

• Implementing internationally required reforms
• Creating secure, protected accounts for expatriates
• Offering credible dollar-denominated savings/investment tools
• Establishing a unified digital platform for remote procedures

Anything less is cosmetic.

The worst - case scenario and why it’s not unthinkable

Despite their critical role, remittances are not guaranteed to continue.

Ajaka identifies several threats:

• Over-dependence on Gulf economies: “Around 60% of Lebanese remittances originate from GCC countries,”

Meaning that any deterioration in oil markets or employment conditions may immediately cut inflows.

• Reliance on informal channels: Exposes Lebanon to international scrutiny over money-laundering and terrorism financing risks, while creating volatility in exchange fees and rates.
• Regional instability: Could redirect expatriate savings toward investment abroad instead of transfers to Lebanon.

Worst of all, Ajaka warns, is the looming risk of Lebanon being placed on the FATF blacklist:

“Blacklisting would be a complete catastrophe a financial death sentence.”

Being cut off from SWIFT and correspondent banks would choke both formal and semi-formal transfers, causing:

• Soaring transfer costs
• Long delays
• Collapse in dollar inflows

A humanitarian crisis fueled by a currency freefall and skyrocketing prices

Lebanon would be plunged into isolating darkness without even the candlelight of its expatriates.

A lifeline but not a future

Remittances have kept Lebanon standing when everything else collapsed. But they also expose a painful truth: A country cannot survive forever on the lifeline of its expatriates.

Without real reform and restored trust, this money remains nothing but an emergency bandage not a recovery plan.

Until then, Lebanon hangs by a thread, kept alive by those who had to leave it behind.