A looming military confrontation between USA and Venezuela

As US President Donald Trump has been seeking to end wars and conflicts throughout the world, an imminent confrontation seems on the horizon in a region considered as Washington’s backyard: Venezuela and the Caribbean Sea.

Just recently, American-Venezuelan relations have reached an all-time low as tensions have exacerbated considerably.

The reasons behind the tensions

Tensions between Washington and Caracas are not new. The two countries’ relations have been strained since Nicolás Maduro has come to power. However, as the Trump administration took office, the situation has entered a new and escalatory phase.

The first reason for the deteriorating relations is Venezuela’s authoritarian and foreign policy approach. Maduro has been adopting various policies and actions to significantly solidify his grip in the country, sidelining and even cracking down on opposition voices and figures. Interestingly, the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to María Corina Machado, who is a prominent Venezuelan politician and activist known for her leadership in the opposition against authoritarianism in Venezuela. She was barred from standing in last year’s presidential elections, which various Western countries (including the US) accused of being rigged. Additionally, Caracas has adopted a foreign policy that seems anti-American. Its staunch allies include Iran, Russia, China and Cuba (actors that Washington views as adversaries).

However, the main contentious issue in the American-Venezuelan relations is that of drug trafficking. The United States has accused Caracas of facilitating gang members’ migration to the country, leading to an increase in crime rates and the influx of drugs. Trump has often claimed that Venezuela’s crime rate has fallen to record lows because the country “emptied out its prisons” by sending migrants to the US. He even went as far as to accuse Maduro of being the leader of the organized crime gang Tren de Aragua, prompting him to invoke the 18th Century Alien Enemies Act as he accused the gang of “perpetrating, attempting, and threatening an invasion of predatory incursion against the territory of the United States” under the direction of Maduro himself.

Recent intensified developments

As previously mentioned, American-Venezuelan relations have taken a new and alarming turn since Trump’s inauguration. In less than 2 months, the US army has killed at least 37 people in 9 strikes against vessels in the Caribbean Sea and eastern Pacific Ocean, which Trump and US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth claim are related to drug-smuggling. They justified their policy as a necessity to hinder and prevent the flow of drugs into the country. This was facilitated by invoking of the aforementioned Act, which paves the way for criminal organizations and drug cartels to be named “foreign terrorist organizations.”

Furthermore, Trump has authorized the CIA to conduct covert operations inside Venezuela and has threatened carrying out land operations on the country. Since then, prospects of war have risen. The US has deployed 7 warships in the Caribbean Sea, while Maduro boasted the 5,000 Igla-S Russian-made anti-aircraft missiles in its arsenal. Trump is even aiming to brief the US Congress on “potential military operations” in South America (against Venezuela and Colombia).

Despite US allegations, Maduro has continuously denied any relations between the vessels being targeted and drug smuggling, accusing the US of “fabricating a new eternal war.” Consequently, a team of independent experts commissioned by the United Nations’ Human Rights Council criticized Washington’s “covert actions and threats,” claiming that the attacks are taking place without proper legal basis.

Regardless of the legality and legitimacy of any military operation, the two sides seemed have locked heads with one another, sidelining any room for diplomacy and compromise.