Can Egypt anchor Gaza’s stability?

US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff underscored Egypt’s pivotal role in advancing the first phase of President Donald Trump’s Gaza plan, telling President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi that “the breakthrough would not have been possible without his support.” According to diplomatic sources, Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty played a key role in persuading Hamas to “seriously engage”. Yet he emphasized that “Hamas has no role in the day after” in Gaza, a position reflecting both Egyptian and American preferences for a post-Hamas administration led by technocrats.

The gesture reflects Washington’s renewed recognition of Cairo’s indispensable influence in regional diplomacy, especially as both countries seek to repair relations that have cooled since October 7, 2023.

On Monday, Trump and Sisi co-chaired a Gaza peace summit attended by several world leaders. The meeting signaled a cautious reopening of U.S.-Egyptian relations after months of strained communication. President Sisi had previously canceled a planned visit to Washington earlier this year after Trump unveiled his controversial “Gaza Riviera” reconstruction proposal.

Meanwhile, Egypt’s relations with Israel have deteriorated sharply. On September 15, Sisi delivered a strongly worded speech in Doha, condemning Israel’s strike on Qatar. Egypt’s expanded military presence in Sinai, criticized by Israel, appears aimed not at confrontation but at deterring any Israeli attempt to expel Palestinians into Egyptian territory.

The Trump plan, which calls for increased aid deliveries through the Rafah crossing and outlines a gradual disarmament of Hamas, envisions a transition period supported by an International Security Force (ISF). Yet the proposal remains vague about crucial issues: the future of Israeli military positions near Rafah, the composition and financing of the ISF, and the mechanisms for enforcing Hamas’s disarmament. As one observer at Chatham House, David Butter, notes, this ambiguity worries Egypt, which fears being drawn into a security vacuum that could lead to a long and costly involvement in Gaza.

Historical memory shapes much of Egypt’s caution. Cairo’s occupation of Gaza from 1948 to 1967 was, as Butter points out, “an unhappy experience for all concerned” and failed to prevent Israel’s subsequent occupation of Sinai. For Egyptian policymakers, the Trump plan risks repeating this history, potentially forcing Egypt to shoulder responsibility as international attention fades.

The plan’s success hinges on Egypt’s cooperation. Cairo’s role is critical for training Palestinian police and contributing to the Arab-led international security force envisioned by Washington. The plan specifies that Israeli forces will gradually withdraw as these Arab and Palestinian units deploy, and that the ISF will work with both Egypt and Israel to secure the border zones. However, has made it clear that Egypt’s participation depends on international legitimacy:

The international force needs a U.N. Security Council resolution to endorse its deployment and mandate as a peacekeeping force.

This demand reflects Egypt’s insistence on avoiding unilateral commitments and ensuring a clear legal mandate before contributing troops.

At the same time, Egypt sees strategic opportunities amid shifting regional dynamics. Prior to October 7, Saudi-Israeli normalization seemed like a possibility, a process that would have marginalized Cairo in favor of a Riyadh-Tel Aviv axis. During the summit, Sisi proposed the establishment of “an Arab-Islamic mechanism for coordination and cooperation” to tackle major regional challenges, signaling Egypt’s intent to lead a new regional framework rather than play a secondary role.

Security analysts in Cairo remain deeply concerned about the post-withdrawal landscape. A security vacuum in Gaza could threaten Egypt’s 13-kilometre border, prompting calls for proactive measures. “There is an urgent need for the presence of an international force in Gaza after Hamas abdicates power and Israel withdraws,” said retired Egyptian army general Nasr Salem.

Egypt will be part of this force to ensure that there will not be a security vacuum in Gaza, one that threatens its borders.

In the broader political context, Egypt’s post-war strategy emphasizes security, aid delivery, and the restoration of Palestinian governance, reflecting both Trump’s vision and Cairo’s longstanding priorities.

Cairo’s approach is not merely pragmatic, it is also ideological. Egyptian authorities view Hamas as an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood, the movement banned and suppressed in Egypt since 2013.

As Egypt repositions itself as a cornerstone of post-war diplomacy, its challenge will be balancing security commitments with domestic caution. While Washington and regional partners look to Cairo to anchor Gaza’s stabilization, Egyptian leaders remain wary of overextension. Still, with the Trump plan hinging on Egypt’s consent and capacity, Cairo’s choices will likely determine whether the peace process endures or collapses.