China is enhancing its abilities for a possible future attack against Taiwan

Taiwan’s Ministry of Defense reported that China has been enhancing both the frequency of its military operations around the island as well as its abilities and equipment. The ministry fears an intended surprise attack in the future, given the severely strained relations between the two.

Background on Chinese-Taiwanese tense relations

Following the Chinese People’s War of Resistance Against Aggression in 1945 (which saw the end of Japanese occupation since 1931), a civil war re-emerged from the power struggles between two contending factions: the Nationalists Kuomintang (KMT)-led government and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Benefiting from popular support and effective guerilla tactics, CCP gradually gained the upper hand and took control of the mainland in 1949, proclaiming the establishment of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) with a communist political system. Meanwhile, Kuomintang fled to the nearby Taiwanese island, where it established the Republic of China (ROC) with a liberal political system.

While the overwhelming majority of the international community recognizes the PRC as the sole legitimate sovereign government over all of China, only 14 countries officially recognize Taiwan as a separate country. The United States, however, preserves the One China Policy in 1979 (a diplomatic acknowledgment that there is only one China, which encompasses both the PRC and Taiwan), it nevertheless remains committed to Taiwan’s defense under the so-called “strategic ambiguity” (a cornerstone of US policy towards Taiwan, which allows Washington to maintain a degree of flexibility in its responses to a potential military conflict between China and Taiwan, without committing to a specific course of action).

These historic tensions remain and even increase by the day. A 2023 poll by the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation revealed that 48.9% of Taiwanese support obtaining formal national independence, while 26.9% support maintaining the “status quo” and 11.8% support unification with the mainland.

China’s potential invasion of Taiwan

Beijing’s recent increased provocations and efforts to develop new equipment signal an offensive posture towards Taiwan. The latter’s defense ministry claimed that China has been relying on its AI capabilities (which have been significantly enhanced in the last couple years) to weaken the island’s cybersecurity and to scan for weak points in critical infrastructure. Additionally, the mainland has referred to “hybrid warfare” as a means to negatively impact the people’s trust in their government. The ministry said that “through both conventional and unconventional military actions, it aims to test its capabilities for attacking Taiwan and confronting foreign forces.”

As China considers Taiwan President Lai Ching-te a “separatist”, coupled with its serious efforts to enhance its military and technological abilities, Beijing could potential be poised to conduct a military operation, or even an invasion against the self-proclaimed island country.