Conditional support looms over the Paris Conference

Diplomatic attention is increasingly focused on a proposed international conference in Paris aimed at supporting the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), an institution widely viewed as one of the last pillars of stability in a country suffering from economic collapse and political paralysis.

Ahead of the anticipated gathering, Lebanese Army Commander General Rodolphe Haykal is due to visit the French capital for meetings dedicated to assessing the army’s needs and potential avenues of assistance. Yet despite growing discussion, the conference remains hypothetical, with no official date set and no firm commitments secured.

Conditional support and American red lines

According to informed sources to The Beiruter, the Paris conference is contingent on a heavy set of preconditions, primarily insisted upon by the United States.

These include strict guarantees regarding how any financial or military assistance would be spent, reinforced mechanisms for institutional transparency, and clear links between aid and measurable reform steps. Washington’s position reflects longstanding concerns over governance, accountability, and the risk that international assistance could be misused or diluted within Lebanon’s fragmented political system.

More broadly, US officials appear to view the conference not merely as a platform for mobilizing support, but as a tool of political and financial leverage. Within this framework, aid to the Lebanese army is tied to a wider strategy aimed at recalibrating Lebanon’s security balance, particularly on the sensitive issue of confining all weapons to state authority. From this perspective, any assistance must unequivocally strengthen the state and its legitimate institutions, without creating ambiguity at either the domestic or regional level.

France’s initiative and its limits

France, traditionally one of the Lebanese army’s strongest international backers, has shown clear enthusiasm for convening the conference. However, Paris faces structural constraints.

Without full American endorsement of both the conditions and the expected outcomes, French efforts remain stalled. This explains the absence of a concrete timetable, as diplomatic momentum waits on political convergence.

Alas, the proposed Paris conference underscores the paradox facing Lebanon: broad international recognition of the army’s importance, paired with deep reluctance to provide unconditional support. Until donor demands are met, assistance to the LAF appears set to remain hostage to a complex basket of political and institutional conditions.