Could Lebanon turn today’s energy crisis into opportunity?

The Gulf region is witnessing a noticeable escalation in security tensions following a series of attacks targeting major energy facilities in several countries across the region. These developments have revived longstanding concerns regarding the stability of global energy supplies, particularly given that the Gulf represents one of the fundamental pillars of the international energy system, both in terms of oil production and natural gas exports.

 

Market anxiety and the risk of supply disruptions

It is well known that the gravity of these events is not limited solely to the security dimension but also extends to global energy markets. The mere targeting of vital facilities or the threat to supply lines is sufficient to trigger anxiety in the markets and increase geopolitical risk levels, which is usually reflected in prices. In this context, worrying indicators have emerged, including discussions about activating the force majeure clause in certain oil contracts in the region. In practical terms, this means that some contractual obligations may become impossible to fulfill due to compelling circumstances beyond control, such as wars or attacks on energy infrastructure.

If such developments continue, they will inevitably lead to disruptions in global supplies, which has already pushed, and will likely continue to push, oil and gas prices upward. Energy markets are extremely sensitive to any threat in the Gulf, which supplies the world with a significant share of its oil and gas needs. Moreover, rising security risks usually lead to increased maritime insurance and transportation costs, which are ultimately reflected in final energy prices.

 

Global search for alternative energy sources

In response to these challenges, energy-importing countries are seeking urgent solutions to secure their needs. Among the proposed options is increasing imports from producers outside the Gulf region, such as the United States, West African countries, or the North Sea, in addition to strengthening reliance on liquefied natural gas from multiple sources. Some countries may also resort to using their strategic oil reserves to alleviate pressure on markets in the short term.

As for Lebanon, this complex regional landscape carries both direct and indirect implications. On the one hand, Lebanon relies entirely on imported petroleum products to meet its energy needs, meaning that any increase in global prices will automatically be reflected in the national economy, as well as in the cost of electricity generation, transportation, and consequently services. In light of the economic crisis the country is experiencing, this represents an additional challenge for public finances and for the purchasing power of citizens.

On the other hand, this difficult situation may also present a future opportunity for Lebanon to reconsider its regional role in the energy sector. Lebanon possesses historical infrastructure in this field dating back to the mid-twentieth century, which, if rehabilitated, could help reposition the country on the energy map of the Eastern Mediterranean.

Among the most prominent of these assets are the oil refineries in Tripoli and Zahrani, which could be rehabilitated and operated to refine imported oil or to provide storage and re-export services for petroleum products. In addition, the oil storage tanks located at these sites could be further developed to become strategic storage hubs serving Lebanon and potentially neighboring markets.

 

The Arab Gas Pipeline and energy diversification

The Arab Gas Pipeline project also stands out as one of the regional initiatives that could play an important role in strengthening Lebanon’s energy security. This pipeline represents one of the most significant regional projects for transporting gas from Egypt through Jordan and Syria to Lebanon. Reactivating and expanding it could help Lebanon diversify its energy sources and reduce reliance on liquid fuels for electricity generation.

Opportunities are not limited to this project alone. Several historical energy initiatives that once linked Lebanon to major Arab oil-exporting countries could also be revived. Among them is the Iraqi oil pipeline to the Tripoli refinery, which in the past served as one of the region’s most significant oil transportation routes. Rehabilitating this infrastructure could once again position Tripoli as a strategic hub for refining or exporting Iraqi crude to European and Mediterranean markets. Similarly, the reactivation of the Saudi oil pipeline to the Zahrani refinery, should the necessary political conditions emerge, could reinforce Lebanon’s potential role as an energy transit corridor in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Activating these projects would not only contribute to improving Lebanon’s energy security, but could also provide an additional source of revenue for the Lebanese state through transportation, storage, and refining services, in addition to creating job opportunities and stimulating multiple economic sectors.

 

Ultimately, the current tensions in the Gulf represent a real threat to the stability of global energy markets. At the same time, however, they serve as a reminder to countries of the importance of diversifying supply sources and strengthening energy infrastructure. For Lebanon, turning these challenges into an opportunity requires a clear strategic vision and serious political will to reinvest in the energy sector, enabling the country to reclaim part of its historical role as an energy hub in the Eastern Mediterranean.