Exploration returns and Block 8 takes center stage

Lebanon’s oil and gas file is regaining momentum as the country moves closer to signing an offshore exploration agreement for Block 8, a step that signals renewed international interest in the sector despite ongoing economic collapse and political instability.

According to information reported by MTV, a consortium comprising TotalEnergies, QatarEnergy, and Italy’s ENI is expected to sign, on Friday, an agreement with Lebanon to explore offshore Block 8.

The contract is set to run for three years at the end of which the consortium will decide, based on seismic survey results, whether to proceed with drilling an exploratory well in the block.

The move was formally approved after the Lebanese Council of Ministers endorsed the Block 8 exploration agreement and awarded the three companies the mandate to carry out drilling operations.

However, behind the official approval lies a key caveat. Available information indicates that the new agreement postpones seismic surveys for three years, meaning that Lebanon’s first exploratory well in Block 8 is unlikely to be drilled for at least five years, even under the most favorable conditions.

This slow pace reflects the structural realities of offshore exploration, but it also tempers expectations of any near-term discoveries or financial returns.

What about Block 9?

In parallel, sources at the Lebanon Petroleum Administration suggest that TotalEnergies is expected to relinquish Block 9 shortly after the Block 8 contract is signed.

These sources argue that such a move could strengthen the role of TotalEnergies and QatarEnergy in electricity-generation projects, either through renewable energy initiatives or via the deployment of a Floating Storage and Regasification Unit (FSRU) to produce electricity using imported gas.

A source familiar with the file told The Beiruter that the significance of the Block 8 agreement goes beyond its technical dimension, carrying broader political and economic implications.

According to the source, the agreement demonstrates that, despite everything unfolding in Lebanon today, investors continue to look ahead rather than retreat. The presence of global energy companies willing to invest and explore in a country facing one of the worst crises in its history is, in itself, a positive signal.

The source adds that the timing of this engagement points to a post-crisis horizon, underscoring that Lebanon remains on the radar of major international energy players.

Linking gas exploration to electricity reform

The source also links this trajectory to the work of Energy Minister Joe Saddi, particularly efforts to diversify Lebanon’s gas supply options. Offshore exploration, the source stresses, is inherently a long-term process that cannot deliver immediate results and should not be treated as an instant solution.

At the same time, work is progressing on parallel, faster-track options most notably the FSRU project, which would allow Lebanon to import gas offshore for electricity generation during a transitional phase.

This approach also intersects with the Lebanese–Syrian–Jordanian gas pipeline arrangements, which, if reactivated, could allow gas to flow back into Lebanon through existing regional infrastructure.

Long timelines, shifting context

All of these projects require time. Offshore exploration does not produce gas overnight, and electricity shortages cannot be resolved instantly. Yet their importance lies in their political timing.

According to the source, the international community increasingly recognizes that the prolonged “abnormal state” Lebanon has lived in for decades is no longer sustainable, and that a long phase of systemic exploitation stretching from the 1990s through 2024 is approaching its end.

From this perspective, the source views current developments as part of a slow but tangible international recalibration, linked to the gradual erosion of a political-security order that dominated the country for years, in reference to Hezbollah, while stressing that no official position should be attributed to the ministry or to the source.

The bottom line

The Block 8 agreement does not signal an imminent discovery or a rapid breakthrough in Lebanon’s energy crisis. What it does signal is something more fundamental: Lebanon has not been written off by major energy companies.

For the first time in years, the trajectory however slow appears to be moving forward rather than backward.