Fears of rising Iranian sentiments in Iraq

Iraq’s political process is entering a decisive phase as parliament prepares to convene on Tuesday 27 January 2026 to elect a new president, a step that will set in motion the appointment of the next prime minister.

The developments come amid the endorsement of former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki by the powerful Coordination Framework alliance, raising both domestic debate and international concern, particularly from the United States (US), over the future direction of Iraq’s foreign policy.

Presidential vote and constitutional timelines

Parliamentary Speaker Haibat al-Halbousi, from the Taqaddum (Progress) Party, announced that the newly elected legislature will meet to choose a president, a largely ceremonial and symbolic position that nonetheless plays a pivotal constitutional role. Once elected, the president has 15 days to nominate a prime minister, traditionally drawn from the largest Shiite bloc in parliament. The designated prime minister is then granted 1 month to form a government and present it to lawmakers for a vote of confidence.

In line with Iraq’s post-2003 power-sharing convention, the prime minister is Shiite, the parliamentary speaker Sunni and the presidency allocated to a Kurdish figure. Traditionally, the presidency is held by the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK). Kurdish parties, however, have yet to agree on a single candidate, as the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) named its own candidate; a disagreement that could complicate or delay the process.

Maliki’s endorsement by the Coordination Framework

On Saturday, the Coordination Framework announced by majority vote its decision to nominate Nouri al-Maliki (leader of the Islamic Dawa Party since 2007) for the premiership. In a statement, the alliance cited Maliki’s “political and administrative experience” and stressed its commitment to the constitutional process and cooperation with other national forces to form an effective government.

The Coordination Framework is a coalition of Iraqi Shiite factions formed in October 2021, primarily to counter the rising political power of Muqtada al-Sadr’s Sadrist movement. The alliance includes several Shiite parties which, despite their differences, share strong ties with Iran and the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) factions. The Coordination Framework has become the largest parliamentary bloc in Iraq, playing a decisive role in government formation and shaping the political landscape.

As for Maliki, he had previously served as prime minister from 2006 to 2014. He was Iraq’s only two-term premier since the US-led invasion, a member of the de-Baathification commission that barred members of Saddam’s Baath party from public office and had managed over the years to appease both Tehran and Washington. His return would mark a significant political comeback at a time of shifting regional dynamics, including a relative decline in Iranian influence and heightened tensions between Iran and the US.

US warnings and international pressure

The prospect of Maliki’s return has drawn a sharp response from Washington. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that a government dominated by Iran-aligned forces would undermine Iraq’s interests and strain relations with the United States. American officials have reportedly cautioned Iraqi leaders that including Iran-backed armed groups in the next government could trigger punitive measures, including sanctions that might affect Iraq’s vital oil revenues held through the US Federal Reserve system.

The fears and concerns raised were compounded with Kata’ib Hezbollah’s alarming statement. On 25 January 2026, the group appealed to “the mujahideen brothers in the East and the West of the earth,” calling on them to “prepare for a comprehensive war in support of and assistance to the Islamic Republic of Iran, the fortress and pride of the Umma (nation).” Indeed, the statement issued by the group’s Secretary-General Hajj Abu Hussein al-Hamidawi demanded to maintain their readiness, “especially if jihad is declared by the esteemed religious authorities to wage this sacred war, and for what it entails in rulings or jihadist action that may rise to martyrdom operations, in defense of the people of Islam and its sanctuary.” This goes to show how embedded Tehran is in Iraq, and the potential Iraqi intervention in a future military showdown between Iran and Israel (along with the United States).

In conclusion, Iraq stands at a critical political crossroads where constitutional procedures intersect with deeper questions about sovereignty, regional alignment and internal stability. The endorsement of Nouri al-Maliki by the Coordination Framework, combined with explicit signals from Iran-aligned armed factions, has intensified fears that Baghdad could tilt further into Tehran’s strategic orbit at a moment of heightened regional volatility. At the same time, strong US warnings underscore the potential economic and diplomatic costs Iraq may face if its next government is perceived as dominated by Iran-backed forces. As parliamentary negotiations unfold, the outcome of the presidential and prime ministry selections will not only shape Iraq’s next government but also determine whether the country can balance competing external pressures while safeguarding its national interests and avoiding entanglement in broader regional confrontations.