Foreign officials carry last warning to Lebanon

Lebanon faces growing risks of a renewed military confrontation with Israel as tensions along the border escalate.

Recent diplomatic efforts, spearheaded by Egypt and backed by Western powers, underscore the urgency of stabilizing the country before the end of 2025.

Increasing western and Egyptian warnings to Lebanon

Egyptian Foreign Minister (FM) Badr Abdel-Aati hosted a dinner in Beirut with several Lebanese MPs, during which he addressed Lebanon’s fragile security and political situation. He expressed concern over the country’s unresolved efforts to centralize arms under state authority, noting that Cairo continues to monitor the issue closely in coordination with international partners.

Abdel-Aati reportedly revealed that he had held discussions with Israeli, American, and European officials, who reportedly view Lebanon’s prospects for political and economic reform as closely linked to the presence of Hezbollah’s armed capabilities. He warned of the risk of a renewed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before the holiday season, stressing that any future confrontation would likely be more intense than last year’s 2024 war, both in operational scope and in attempts to isolate Hezbollah politically and socially. He cited the recent assassination of Hezbollah figure Tabtabai as indicative of growing unease within some segments of its support base.

The FM also did not rule out the possibility of a ground offensive similar to operations in southern Syria, where areas entered by Israeli forces were depopulated, creating humanitarian and security crises. Abdel-Aati stressed that such developments could have severe repercussions across Lebanon, underlining the urgency of preventing escalation and addressing the country’s underlying political and security challenges.

Western diplomats, including US officials, carry the same message, that Lebanon must assert state authority over armed groups immediately. Delays in consolidating control over Hezbollah’s weapons risk provoking a major Israeli offensive. The upcoming visit of US envoy Morgan Ortagus signals that the United States expects concrete, immediate steps to disarm the Iranian-backed group, linking continued financial and military support to tangible progress.

Egypt’s diplomatic initiative

Despite the gloomy picture, Egypt is also allegedly preparing a high-stakes diplomatic initiative to avert war, focusing on 3 main measures:

- First, the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) would fully remove weapons from southern Litani, issuing a transparent declaration to the international community to confirm state sovereignty.

- Second, arms in northern Litani would be deactivated as an initial step toward eventual collection, with Hezbollah expected to clarify its stance.

- Third, Lebanon and Israel would be encouraged to enter direct negotiations under the sponsorship of Egypt, France, the US and Saudi Arabia, potentially hosted in Sharm el-Sheikh, to ease tensions and establish a sustainable security framework.

From here, Lebanon stands at a critical juncture. International and regional actors are sending clear, urgent messages: the country must assert sovereignty, implement security measures, and engage in dialogue to avoid a devastating escalation. With time running out, Lebanon’s response in the coming weeks will determine whether it can stabilize internally and avoid a conflict with severe consequences for its people and the wider region. The choices made now are pivotal: either decisive action to control armed groups and restore state authority, or the risk of a confrontation whose impact could resonate far beyond its borders.