Former Israeli general warns of “deceptive calm” in the north

Israel faces a period of heightened regional tension as senior military officials warn of a potential direct confrontation with Iran. Despite relative calm along Israel’s northern borders, the threat of escalation remains acute, driven by Tehran’s regional activities and the continued presence of proxy forces.

Brigadier General (Res.) Amir Avivi, former senior officer and current Chairman of the Israel Defense and Security Forum (IDSF), cautioned that Israel could act preemptively against Iran if the circumstances demand, signaling a significant shift in the strategic calculus of Jerusalem.

Calm is misleading

Speaking at the “Bolstering the North” conference in the Upper Galilee, organized by Israel Hayom, Avivi described the current situation in the north as “deceptive.” While there have been pauses in cross-border activity, Israel’s security establishment continues to prepare for a broader campaign targeting Iran and its regional networks

According to Avivi, the quiet should not be mistaken for the end of hostilities; rather, it represents a strategic pause while Israel strengthens its military and operational posture for a potential multi-front confrontation.

Preemptive action, strategic calculus and a multi-front conflict

A central message from Avivi’s warning is the possibility that Israel might strike Iran before United States (US) forces become fully engaged. He highlighted that Tehran has been mobilizing its regional proxies to ensure it is not isolated in a conflict.

This increases the risk of simultaneous escalations across multiple fronts, including northern Israel, Iraq, Syria and the Persian Gulf. Avivi stressed that Israel is prepared to respond decisively to any attacks, particularly from Hezbollah, stating that “if Hezbollah opens fire, the IDF will strike them until collapse.” The group’s participation in such a military confrontation has risen due to Secretary-General Sheikh Naim Qassem’s latest speech, whereby he vowed to defend and support the Iranian regime and its Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the event of a joint US-Israeli attack on Tehran. His statements complemented Kata’ib Hezbollah’s call in Iraq earlier this week, urging jihadis all over the region to unite and defend Iran.

From here, the current military strategy takes into account the potential for a highly complex conflict. Avivi warned that Iran’s efforts to coordinate its proxies could result in a “storm” of attacks across multiple theaters simultaneously. Israel’s ongoing strikes in Lebanon, coupled with reinforced military readiness, are part of a broader deterrence strategy aimed at minimizing the effectiveness of any coordinated Iranian response. The objective is to disrupt Iran’s operational capabilities before they can be fully mobilized, preventing large-scale regional destabilization.

Expanding objectives: from defense to regime pressure

While Israel has historically focused on defending its borders from immediate threats, Avivi highlighted a shift toward more strategic objectives. The ultimate goal, he explained, is the dismantling of the Iranian regime itself, a move that would undermine all of its regional proxies.

This approach reflects an assessment that incremental measures are insufficient to counter the existential threats posed by Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs, as well as the activities of allied groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas. From here, regime change has become a primary objective in Israel’s policies, in order to get rid of the “head of the octopus.”

In conclusion, Brigadier General Avivi’s warnings underscore the fragility of the current regional security situation. While a temporary calm exists along Israel’s borders, the threat of escalation with Iran remains high, potentially involving multiple fronts and requiring rapid, decisive action. The Israeli strategy reflects both a defensive approach and an offensive ambition: to neutralize Iran’s influence, protect national security and weaken the network of Tehran’s proxies. As tensions continue to rise, the coming months may determine whether Israel acts preemptively or waits for broader international coordination, a decision with far-reaching regional and global consequences.