Is Lebanon at risk of a major earthquake?

In recent weeks, a series of earthquakes across Lebanon and the wider region has reignited public anxiety about seismic risk. From tremors felt along Beirut’s coastline to activity in the Dead Sea region, the question many are asking is familiar, and unsettling: could a major earthquake strike Lebanon?

On January 10, residents across Beirut reported feeling a 4.1-magnitude earthquake. According to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the tremor’s epicenter was located approximately 60 kilometers offshore, at a depth of around 10 kilometers. The shaking was not limited to Lebanon; it was also felt in parts of Syria and Israel, underscoring the regional nature of seismic activity in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Just days earlier, on January 6, walkers along the Beirut corniche reported minor tremors, adding to a growing sense of unease. Meanwhile, on Thursday, a separate 4.2-magnitude earthquake struck the Dead Sea region, affecting Jordan, Israel, and the Palestinian territories.

Lebanon’s seismic reality

In an exlusive with The Beiruter, geology expert Tony Nemer says the recent earthquakes felt across Lebanon and the wider region are part of the area’s natural seismic behavior and should not be interpreted as a sign that a major earthquake is imminent.

“The recent tremors are very natural,” Dr Nemer explains. “They are part of the normal activity of the Dead Sea Transform Fault. This has happened before, and it will continue to happen.” Addressing a widespread public concern, Dr Nemer stresses that small earthquakes do not typically act as precursors to larger ones. “In most cases, major earthquakes occur suddenly and without warning,” he says. “About 95 percent of large earthquakes are not preceded by smaller tremors. Only around five percent are.”

Because of this, he adds, earthquakes cannot currently be predicted. “There is no reliable way to forecast when an earthquake will happen,” Dr Nemer says, pushing back against claims circulating online that suggest otherwise.

In recent weeks, warnings by Dutch researcher Frank Hoogerbeets have gained traction on social media, fueling anxiety across Lebanon, Syria, and Jordan. Dr Nemer is critical of such public alerts, arguing that they offer no new scientific insight. “Saying that a large earthquake could happen along the Dead Sea fault is not a prediction, it’s a known geological fact,” he explains. “This has happened historically, and the causes still exist. But that does not mean it will happen now, or as a result of recent activity.”

According to the expert, repeatedly issuing vague warnings risks unnecessarily alarming the public. “These statements tend to intimidate people rather than inform them,” he says. “They do not add anything new to what science already knows.”

When it comes to Lebanon’s readiness for a major earthquake, Dr Nemer notes that vulnerability varies significantly depending on location and construction. “Buildings constructed on solid rock tend to withstand earthquakes better than those built on sandy or unstable ground,” he explains, adding that newer structures are generally more resilient than older ones. As a result, he says, it is difficult to make sweeping assessments about nationwide preparedness.

Still, Dr Nemer emphasizes that public awareness and calm response are crucial. During an earthquake, he advises people to stay composed and avoid panic-driven actions like rushing down staircases. “Loss of control causes more harm than the shaking itself,” he says. Instead, people should stay away from glass and unsecured objects, and seek shelter near structural supports such as pillars or door frames.

After the shaking stops, Dr Nemer advises residents to assess their surroundings calmly. “If the building appears structurally sound, there is no immediate need to evacuate,” he says. “Stay inside, follow the news, and listen to official instructions.”

Lebanon’s location along an active fault line makes seismic activity inevitable, recent tremors are not a signal of an impending disaster. Experts stress that awareness, preparedness, and responsible communication are the most effective responses to a risk that has always existed.