Lebanon… Independence in an era of lost sovereignty

Lebanon’s “independence” remains a postponed state, as the country has, over the past decades, been transformed into a frontline tool in regional and international struggles. At times it served as an instrument within the orbit of Egypt’s late president Gamal Abdel Nasser in the 1960s; later it fell under the tutelage of Hafez al-Assad, who handed that system to his son Bashar; and after the 2005 assassination of Rafik Hariri, Assad effectively “gifted” Lebanon to Hezbollah, which anchored the country as an Iranian bargaining card in its standoffs with successive U.S. administrations.

Lebanon, the region’s once-advanced model, has seen its model of freedom of expression and economic openness vanish. Paradoxically, it now stands outside the major political currents shaping the contemporary Middle East. Meanwhile, Syria, emerging from a devastating civil war, is gradually regaining a place in regional and international equations; Iraq has become a central platform for Washington-Tehran negotiations. Lebanon, once a hub of regional economic decision-making and the financial gateway between the Arab world and the West, has been turned by Tehran into a bargaining chip in recent years. Its institutions are blocked by an internal militia structure and incapacitated by an elite that uses militia power to cement its own dominance.

Lebanon’s condition is no longer measured by a strong economy, a vibrant press, or a pluralistic opposition born of freedoms. Grim realities now measure it: near-total international isolation, ongoing financial collapse, paralyzed state institutions, and the reemergence of new pathways for weapons and money smuggling to militias. A ruling political class promises reforms abroad only to retreat at the first point of intersection with interests. And so Lebanon today faces an existential question: Is it still capable of producing a state?

A few days ago, Lebanese Army Commander Rudolf Heikal arrived in Washington seeking to rebuild trust between the military institution and the U.S. Department of Defense. But instead of holding meetings to discuss support for the army, the opposite happened: officials refused to see him after a campaign launched by activists and U.S. officials outraged by Lebanon’s failure to disarm Hezbollah or maintain stability. Senator Lindsey Graham wrote on X: “It is clear that the Lebanese Chief Head of Defense -because of a reference to Israel as the enemy and his weak, almost non-existent effort to disarm Hezbollah- is a giant setback for efforts to move Lebanon forward. This combination makes the Lebanese Armed Forces not a very good investment for America”.

Talk began in Washington about a potential decision to halt the roughly $200 million in annual military aid to Lebanon. A difficult crisis, but with an apparent cause: the state’s inability to make a clear decision to disarm Hezbollah, distance the party from national security decision-making, and prevent it, according to U.S. officials, from reasserting capabilities lost during the Israeli strikes.

Lebanon has clearly entered a new phase. It was once among Washington’s favored states in the early months of President Joseph Aoun’s term, when hopes were high that state-building was finally within reach. But political paralysis pushed Lebanon backward. For Washington, it is no longer possible to separate the army from the political and security environment in which it operates. The latest U.S. move sends an unmistakable message: either an independent state free from militias, or a complete retreat from partnership.

A paralyzed parliament... And a 40-year crisis of power

Domestically, Lebanon’s political class is reinstating a model all too familiar from the civil war era: obstructing the election of a president for years, blocking government bills that threaten their interests, and most notably burying the “expatriate voting law” the government submitted to parliament. Doors were shut to prevent its passage. The Hezbollah-aligned political bloc appears set on entrenching political norms that preserve Shiite dual leadership at the same level established on February 6, 1984, when militias seized state institutions alongside Syrian intelligence, prolonging the war for years. This pattern of institutional sabotage continues to this day in different forms.

Hezbollah leads this obstruction through various tools, sometimes by blocking roads with motorcycles, sometimes by shutting down institutions. Despite the post-2024 war environment that should have forced change and a return to state authority, Hezbollah and its many allies in the political system are working to block any political pathway incompatible with their regional calculations.

Eighty years after independence and tens of thousands of deaths in internal and external wars, the sovereignty question remains unresolved. Today, the Lebanese seek to move past the logic of “tutelage” toward a new concept of institution-building and corruption-free governance: an independence from weapons and from regional entanglements.

Hezbollah, however, presents its familiar narrative: that “the resistance” liberated the south in 2000, withstood Israel in 2006, and that the 2024 war proved the necessity of retaining weapons. Yet this narrative ignores a fundamental truth: Hezbollah’s military power grants it veto authority over decisions of war and peace and places Lebanon squarely within Iranian regional strategy. It overlooks that in 2000, U.S. and French pressure forced Israel to implement UN Resolution 425 and withdraw; that in 2006, Lebanon’s infrastructure was destroyed due to Hezbollah’s unilateral military adventurism as Iran’s nuclear negotiations hit a dead end; and that in the 2024 “support war” aiding Hamas in Gaza, the remnants of Lebanon’s economy nearly collapsed after whole villages in the south were destroyed, while the ceasefire terms granted Israel the right to pursue Hezbollah operatives rebuilding their military and financial networks.

Washington launches a “gradual dismantling” plan

In recent weeks, two American envoys arrived in Beirut carrying a clear message to President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam: cutting off funding to Hezbollah is a prerequisite for continued international and Arab support, economically, politically, and militarily.

The American plan can be summarized in three points: Disarmament of all illegal weapons in accordance with UN Resolutions 1559 and 1701. Dismantling the al-Qard al-Hasan Association, Hezbollah’s parallel financial system. Securing borders, disarming Palestinian camps, and halting ongoing arms-smuggling operations.

A state without an economy

Since 2019, Lebanon has been mired in an economic collapse that has rippled across security, politics, and the judiciary. Then came the Beirut Port explosion, triggered by ammonium nitrate, leaving devastation that will require years and immense resources to rebuild. The World Bank ranks this crisis among the worst globally in modern history.

Its effects on the military and security institutions have been catastrophic: salaries for soldiers and officers have lost most of their value; spare parts for weapons and equipment are nearly nonexistent except through American and Arab aid; and a silent exodus of skilled personnel has drained capacities. Without U.S. support, army units would be operating at a bare minimum. The risk is clear: financial collapse turning into security collapse, then into total sovereign collapse.

After the fall of the Assad regime’s control in Syria, major arms and money-smuggling routes from Iran to Hezbollah halted. But, according to international research centers, the closure of airports to Iranian flights forced Tehran and Hezbollah to build new routes quickly: networks of Lebanese money changers, cash-based businesses, transfers via Turkey and Iraq, maritime shipments of disassembled military equipment reassembled in Lebanon, and transfers in gold and cryptocurrencies.

The U.S. Treasury estimated Iran’s funding for Hezbollah at around $1 billion in a single year to rebuild its military strength after the 2024 war. Even more alarming: Iran is no longer only transferring weapons; it is now exporting the technology and expertise needed to produce missiles and drones inside Lebanon, mirroring its support to the Houthis in Yemen.

A region advancing… And a Lebanon waiting for a Miracle

Under these conditions, striking paradoxes highlight Lebanon’s regression compared to its surroundings. Syria is shifting from “rogue state” to politically and economically open, despite being led by Ahmad al-Shar’a (once among the world’s most-wanted al-Qaeda figures), now returning to the Arab League, opening economic channels eastward, and visiting the United States twice to meet President Donald Trump.

Meanwhile, in Lebanon, President Joseph Aoun, during his trip to New York, did not meet with Trump and was not invited to the Gaza Conference convened after the “Trump ceasefire plan”, a plan that directly affects Lebanon due to the ceasefire proposal. Lebanon now has no financial plan, no reform path, and an entrenched militia system preventing sovereign governance. It has lost its place in the emerging regional order, completely absent from investment maps and diplomatic strategies.

Can independence be saved?

Independence in Lebanon has never been complete, undermined by regional and international interference and by authorities unwilling to protect the country and its people, rather than plunging them into the burdens of surrounding conflicts. Today, Lebanon is more threatened than ever: militias operating outside the state, no commitment to an international rescue plan, continued political paralysis, and systematic smuggling of weapons and money, all eroding international trust.

Saving independence requires far more than statements, celebrations, or contradictory political positions. It requires: Disarming militias and restoring the state’s monopoly over force; Judicial reform; Rebuilding trust with the international community; A complete separation between the state and regional conflict axes; Pursuit of peace that safeguards Lebanon with both Syria and Israel.

Until that happens, Lebanon will continue living in an eroded independence, suspended sovereignty, and a state waiting for its rebirth.