Looming escalation raises fear among lebanese in targeted regions

Sunday’s violation of the Gaza ceasefire coupled with the intensified Israeli airstrikes on southern Lebanon, have heightened fears among residents that the conflict might once again visit destruction upon the area as well as the southern suburbs of Beirut.

Scorched earth policy in the South

Israel might replicate in Lebanon what they did in Gaza, implementing a “scorched-earth policy” to destroy anything – homes, resources, infrastructure, crops, industrial plants, in its path while advancing through, or withdrawing from, an area.

Israel has expanded its targets to include non-Hezbollah installations (weapon and ammunition depots) such as farm land, and civilian and industrial facilities, many used in the reconstruction efforts such as cement factories and industrial workshops, while the South Lebanon Water Establishment reported that the airstrikes hit and destroyed the institution’s strategic depot.”

Residents in the region claim Israel is intentionally targeting the “arteries of civilian life,”. MP Mohammad Khawaja, a member of the Development and Liberation Bloc, also believed that the recent targeted strikes are “no coincidence nor a limited military response. Instead, he is convinced it is a “systematic policy aimed at economically suffocating the south and blocking any return to normal life.”

Meanwhile two narratives are emerging from Israel: The first claims that Tel Aviv’s goal is to pressure Hezbollah and the Lebanese state towards disarming the group and that any reconstruction or the return of the remaining displaced southerners to their villages will not happen until this is achieved. And Hezbollah continues to reject disarmament, and Israel persists in its devastating targeted airstrikes, reconstruction efforts, and the return of displaced, seems highly unlikely.

The second narrative suggests that Israel’s goal is to perpetuate an irreversible displacement crisis in southern Lebanon to create an uninhabitable, demilitarized buffer zone along its northern border, and to conduct unhindered reconnaissance and monitoring activities in the region.

Some analysts go even further, suggesting that its intention is to move a step closer to the creating the Biblically inspired “Greater Israel,” an ambition of far-right religious elements with Israeli society, one that ultimately would great an entity from the Nile to the Euphrates (thus including all of Lebanon).

While some may not adopt such a maximalist approach, they believe that Tel Aviv has expansionist ambitions as far as the strategic Litani River, a goal of the early 20th century Zionists.

Residents of Beirut’s Southern Suburbs are selling-up

With the threat of war looming on the horizon, many residents of Beirut’s southern suburbs are moving out, regardless of the fact that property prices are falling by 20% to 40%, the conventional wisdom being that it is better to get out with something than to lose everything in an Israeli airstrike.

The homeowners’ fears come as many have yet to receive full compensation from the 2023-2024 war with Israel. They have only received temporary housing and furniture allowances, amid growing economic and transportation constraints imposed on Hezbollah and Iran.