The last supreme leader…A region holds its breath

He ruled Iran for 35 years. He outlasted eight U.S. presidents. He built a nuclear program, funded Hezbollah, armed the Houthis, and turned the Revolutionary Guard into a regional empire of terror and patronage. On Saturday, February 28, 2026, at approximately 3:00 a.m. Tehran time, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed when a U.S.-Israeli airstrike reduced his compound in central Tehran to rubble. His body was found under the debris. Documentation was reportedly shown to Prime Minister Netanyahu.

And then something extraordinary happened. Across Iran in Tehran, Karaj, Isfahan, Shiraz, Fuladshahr, Abadan, Borazjan, Qazvin, Sanandaj, and Kermanshah people poured into the streets and celebrated.

The people’s verdict on 35 years of rule

The celebrations began in Tehran minutes after word began to spread through encrypted messaging apps and foreign satellite news channels, since Iran's state media initially denied the death. In Fuladshahr, people packed the streets, whistling and cheering. In Borazjan, crowds chanted. In Mamasani, they waved flags and danced. In Shiraz and Abadan, celebrations continued until the early morning hours.

The celebrations were not universal. Supporters of Khamenei mourned at the Imam Reza shrine some collapsed to the floor in grief, others wailed and held his portrait aloft. In Tehran's Enqelab Square, thousands dressed in black chanted 'Death to America' and 'Death to Israel,' waving flags. Iranian state television announced 40 days of national mourning and seven public holidays.

For millions of Iranians born after 1989, Khamenei was the only ruler they had ever known. His name was synonymous with economic ruin, suffocating censorship, the massacre of protesters, and the export of Iran's national wealth to proxy armies in Lebanon, Yemen, and Gaza. The January 2026 uprising in which his security forces killed tens of thousands had already shattered any remaining pretense of popular legitimacy. His death confirmed what Iranians on the streets had been saying for months: his regime was finished. The question was only the manner of the ending.

The operation

The IRGC declared Sunday it would not stop. 'The armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran will not allow the air raid sirens in the occupied territories and American bases to stop,' it said, vowing the 'most ferocious offensive operation in history' against Israel and the United States. The Revolutionary Guard also warned vessels in the Persian Gulf via radio broadcast: 'No ship is allowed to pass the Strait of Hormuz.' Several major oil trading houses suspended Hormuz shipments. Tankers diverted.

Washington, Riyadh, Beirut and the world

Congress was not consulted. The War Powers Resolution which requires presidential notification within 48 hours and limits unauthorized operations to 60 days has been triggered. House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries acknowledged Iran must be confronted for its nuclear ambitions, but said the administration 'must seek authorization for the preemptive use of military force.' Republicans rallied behind Trump. A war powers resolution vote is expected this week. The outcome will either legitimize the action or ignite a constitutional showdown without precedent in modern American history

Iran: A constitutional void

Tehran has no clear succession pathway for a supreme leader. The interim council President Pezeshkian, Parliament Speaker Qalibaf, and newly appointed Expediency Council member Arafi carries no constitutional authority beyond stopgap governance. Security chief Ali Larijani said the transition process will begin Sunday. Iran has prepared for 'all scenarios,' its parliament speaker claimed. The IRGC, ideologically loyal and structurally intact below the command level, remains the regime's most dangerous surviving institution  and the greatest risk of a military junta replacing the theocracy. Netanyahu and Trump both directly addressed Iran's military, urging defection. Whether the IRGC fractures or fights cohesively is the single most consequential unknown of this war.

Lebanon: On the edge

Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam publicly ordered Hezbollah to stand down but Hezbollah has not formally complied. Israel delivered explicit diplomatic warnings through back-channels: if Hezbollah fires, Israeli strikes on Lebanese civilian infrastructure including the Beirut airport will be on a scale beyond the 2024 war. As of Sunday morning, the northern front was quiet. It cannot be assumed to remain so. The IRGC, which had officers in Lebanon before the strikes began, is almost certainly applying intense pressure on the group to open a second front.

The Arab World: No neutrality allowed

Saudi Arabia had told Washington it would not allow its territory to be used against Iran. Iran struck Saudi Arabia anyway  hitting Riyadh and the Eastern Province, home to the most critical oil infrastructure on Earth. The message was calculated: there is no neutral ground. Iran is deliberately raising the cost for every American partner in the region, betting that Gulf governments will pressure Washington to halt the campaign. Kuwait suspended its stock market. Dubai's airport was shut. The UAE ordered schools to remote learning.

Oil, the strait, and global markets in shock

The economic stakes are the most severe of any Middle East crisis since the 1973 oil embargo. Brent crude, already up 20 percent year-to-date at $73 per barrel before the strikes, is now projected at $80 in a contained conflict and above $100 in a prolonged one adding up to 0.7 percentage points to global inflation, per Capital Economics. The Strait of Hormuz threat is live: 20 million barrels of daily oil flow 20 percent of global liquid fuel consumption hang on whether Iran moves from rhetoric to blockade. U.S. naval assets in the Gulf are the only deterrent. If they fail to deter, the result is what Rapidan Energy's Robert McNally calls 'the mother of all bidding wars.'

Gulf equity markets opened in turmoil on Sunday. Kuwait suspended trading entirely. Qatar's exchange closed for a holiday. Saudi Arabia's Tadawul fell 1.65 percent. Muscat Exchange dropped 1.45 percent. Dubai International Airport halted all operations. Over 1,400 flights globally were cancelled. Gold, up 22 percent in 2026, surged further as capital fled to safe harbor. Bitcoin shed 25 percent year-to-date. Standard Chartered's Head of Global Research Eric Robertsen warned that markets had 'already been underpricing geopolitical risk.' The reckoning, he said, was beginning.

What the world is waiting for next

Six decisions will define the outcome of this war and they will likely all be made in the next 96 hours.

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz? The IRGC has broadcast the threat. It has never executed a closure. With regime survival now at stake, the threat carries more credibility than at any previous point in history. U.S. naval presence in the Gulf is the deterrent. If it fails, a global energy catastrophe follows.

Will Hezbollah open the northern front? Lebanon's PM has ordered a stand-down. The longstanding equation in which decisions of war and peace were effectively determined by Hezbollah no longer applies. That authority now rests with the Lebanese state. Israel has promised overwhelming retaliation. Hezbollah has not formally agreed to anything. The IRGC is applying pressure. The next 24 hours on the Lebanese border are the war's most volatile front.

Will Iran's military fracture or fight? Both Netanyahu and Reza Pahlavi have called on commanders to defect. The IRGC is ideologically hardened but was also gutted at the top. Whether the institutional loyalty of Iran's armed forces holds or splinters is the question that determines whether this war ends in weeks or months.

What will Congress do? The war powers resolution vote this week will either legitimize an unprecedented exercise of presidential war authority or trigger a constitutional confrontation. There is no moderate outcome. Every vote will be watched globally.

How far will Russia and China go? Putin called the killing 'a cynical murder.' China called for 'maximum restraint.' Neither will intervene militarily but covert weapons, economic lifelines, cyber operations, and UN Security Council cover could meaningfully extend the Islamic Republic's survival. The degree to which Moscow and Beijing act is the external variable that no intelligence agency can currently predict.

And above all: will Iran's people finish what the bombs started? Trump told Iranians directly: 'When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations.' Netanyahu called on millions to 'come to the streets to finish the job.' The NCRI has declared a provisional democratic government ready to govern. Whether the millions who celebrated Khamenei's death Saturday night have the courage  and the organizational capacity to convert that joy into political action, before the IRGC locks down the streets, is the question on which the entire future of Iran turns.