Much of the international economic attention surrounding the Middle East war has focused on oil markets and energy prices. Yet another supply chain, less visible but just as essential to the global economy, has also been pulled into the conflict: fertilizers.
Modern agriculture depends heavily on nitrogen, phosphate, and potassium fertilizers to replenish soil nutrients and sustain high crop yields. Because many of these inputs are produced using natural gas and traded through global supply chains that pass through regions now affected by the war, disruptions to energy supplies or shipping routes can quickly drive up fertilizer costs. That dependence means conflicts affecting energy infrastructure and maritime trade can ripple into global food systems far faster than many observers expect.
Fertilizers and the architecture of modern agriculture
Few agricultural inputs are as central to modern food production as fertilizer. The dramatic expansion of global crop yields over the past century has been driven in large part by synthetic fertilizers, particularly nitrogen fertilizers that supply essential nutrients for crops.
Data compiled by the International Fertilizer Association in its 2024 Global Fertilizer Trade and Supply Report illustrate the scale of that dependence. Global fertilizer demand now exceeds 200 million tonnes per year, reflecting decades of growth as farmers rely on chemical nutrients to sustain agricultural productivity.
Much of that production is concentrated in regions with abundant natural gas supplies. Countries in and around the Persian Gulf, including Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Iran, have become major producers of ammonia and urea, key components used to manufacture nitrogen fertilizers.
Because of this geographic concentration, fertilizer production and trade are closely tied to global energy markets and maritime shipping routes. Fertilizer produced in gas-rich regions is routinely exported to agricultural markets across Asia, Africa, and Europe. When energy markets tighten or shipping routes become unstable, disruptions can quickly reverberate across agricultural markets.
Lessons from recent fertilizer shocks
Recent market disruptions offer a preview of how these dynamics can unfold. Fertilizer prices surged during the commodity shocks of the early 2020s, as rising global energy prices in 2021–2022 and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine disrupted energy and fertilizer exports, raising concerns that farmers might reduce fertilizer use and cut crop production.
As noted in a 2023 analysis by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), sharp increases in fertilizer prices often force farmers to adjust planting decisions. Some reduce application rates, while others switch to crops that require fewer nutrient inputs. While these choices help contain costs in the short term, they frequently translate into lower yields later in the growing season.
The effects tend to appear with a delay. Fertilizer price shocks may not immediately show up in grocery prices, but the consequences often emerge months later as harvests decline and global commodity markets tighten. As IFPRI economist Joseph Glauber noted during the fertilizer crisis of the early 2020s, rising fertilizer prices can prompt farmers to apply less fertilizer, increasing the likelihood of smaller harvests the following season.
Why the war matters for fertilizer markets
The war now unfolding in the Middle East has revived many of those concerns, as the conflict has introduced uncertainty around energy supplies, industrial production, and maritime trade across parts of the Gulf.
A March 2026 analysis published by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace notes that fertilizer supply chains intersect with many of the same vulnerabilities affecting global energy markets. Nitrogen fertilizers depend heavily on natural gas, and a significant share of global fertilizer exports move through maritime corridors connected to the Persian Gulf.
Because these systems overlap, disruptions in energy or shipping can quickly spill into fertilizer markets. If transport becomes more expensive or production is constrained, fertilizer producers may struggle to move supplies to international buyers.
Even short disruptions can trigger market reactions. Fertilizer traders and agricultural suppliers tend to respond quickly to geopolitical risks, adjusting prices and supply forecasts as uncertainty increases. For farmers preparing for planting seasons, those shifts can ultimately shape decisions that determine the size of the world’s harvest months later.
A hidden front in the global economy
For now, the most visible economic consequences of the war remain concentrated in energy markets and regional security dynamics. Yet agricultural economists increasingly warn that fertilizer supply chains represent another channel through which the conflict could reshape the global economy.
If the current disruptions persist, the consequences may eventually be felt in a familiar place: food markets. What begins as a geopolitical conflict centered in the Middle East could, in time, reshape the economics of agriculture far beyond the battlefield.
