The next strategic competition willbe quantum

Quantum technology has become one of the world's fastest-growing strategic industries. According to McKinsey's 2025 Quantum Technology Monitor, quantum computing, quantum communications and quantum sensing could together generate as much as $97 billion in revenue by 2035 and $198 billion by 2040 as governments and companies race to translate scientific research into commercial and military capabilities.

Much of the public debate has focused on the prospect that future quantum computers could break today's encryption, exposing military communications, financial systems and critical infrastructure. Yet that represents only one dimension of a much broader technological competition. Around the world, governments are investing across the quantum ecosystem, recognizing that advances in computing, communications and sensing could influence everything from secure communications and intelligence collection to GPS-free navigation and precision warfare.

"It's important to differentiate between the three technologies," Michael Doser, a research physicist at CERN, told The Beiruter. "There's quantum computing, quantum communication or encryption, and quantum sensing."

Understanding how these technologies differ, and where each is likely to have the greatest strategic impact, is becoming essential to national security planning.

More than one quantum race

Although often grouped together, Doser argues each presents distinct opportunities and challenges. The greatest concern surrounding quantum computing is its potential to undermine the encryption protecting military communications, intelligence, financial systems and commercial data.

"That kind of encryption covers everything from state secrets and military technology to commercial technologies," Doser said

That prospect has already prompted governments to prepare for a post-quantum world. In August 2024, the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology finalized its first post-quantum cryptography standards, marking the beginning of what cybersecurity experts expect will be a years-long transition toward encryption designed to withstand future quantum attacks.

Yet Doser cautions against assuming that quantum computers capable of breaking today's encryption are just around the corner. Although researchers have built machines with hundreds of qubits, the quantum equivalent of computer bits, experts believe millions of stable qubits will likely be needed before today's encryption can be threatened.

"The real challenge," he said, "is to go from a few hundred qubits, which is sort of the state of the art, to a few million. There's no obvious technological pathway to get there."

Quantum communication takes the opposite approach. Rather than breaking encryption, it uses quantum properties of light to distribute encryption keys in a way that reveals any attempt at interception.

"From the point of view of physics, it cannot be broken," Doser said.

Yet Doser argues that one branch of quantum technology receives far less attention despite its significant implications for national security. Quantum sensing, he said, may ultimately prove just as important, particularly as militaries seek more precise ways to navigate, detect and measure the physical world.

Precision as power

Unlike quantum computers, quantum sensors measure minute changes in magnetic fields, gravity, acceleration and time with far greater precision than conventional instruments.

 "They cannot do any magic," Doser said.

These quantum sensors not going to fundamentally change what you can measure. They're going to change how precisely you can measure it.

That improvement could prove especially valuable in contested environments where conventional navigation and surveillance systems become unreliable. Underwater, for example, submarines cannot rely on GPS or satellite communications. Instead, Doser said, future quantum sensors could navigate by comparing tiny variations in the Earth's magnetic field against highly detailed maps. Because local geology subtly distorts the Earth's magnetic field, sufficiently sensitive sensors could determine a vessel's location without transmitting or receiving a signal.

The same principle could also improve detection. Ships and submarines disturb the surrounding magnetic field as they move, allowing more sensitive quantum magnetometers to detect them from greater distances.

"There's probably an arms race going on right now," Doser said.

As people develop better ways to detect objects, they'll also develop new technologies to avoid being detected.

The technology could also help address one of the defining vulnerabilities of modern warfare. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has highlighted GPS vulnerabilities, with both sides repeatedly using jamming and spoofing to mislead drones, missiles and navigation systems. Similar interference has also affected commercial shipping in the Baltic Sea and Strait of Hormuz.

Doser believes advances in quantum timing could eventually provide one solution. Future navigation systems that rely on extremely precise timing signals, rather than conventional GPS transmissions, could prove much harder to spoof because they would be far more difficult for an adversary to imitate.

Those possibilities are already attracting investment. McKinsey identifies quantum sensing as one of the sector's fastest-growing commercial areas, while a June 2026 White House executive order directed U.S. agencies to accelerate deployment of at least three quantum sensor technologies before 2028. Whether for navigation, surveillance or intelligence gathering, governments are no longer investing in quantum sensing simply for its scientific promise, but for the strategic advantages it may ultimately provide.

The race for talent

For all the attention devoted to quantum hardware, Doser believes the long-term competition will depend just as much on education and scientific capacity as on technological breakthroughs.

"All of this is extremely high-tech," he said. "It requires a deep understanding of mathematics, physics, electronics and engineering."

Unlike many emerging technologies, quantum systems require a highly skilled workforce capable of designing, operating and improving them.

“I think countries with large, well-educated workforces are going to be at a strategic advantage,” he said.

Countries that have not invested in developing scientists and engineers will find it increasingly difficult to catch up.

That helps explain why the competition extends well beyond the United States and China. Doser points to Europe, Japan, South Korea, India, Australia and Israel as major contributors, while noting that countries including Brazil and Chile have developed active research communities in quantum sensing.

For Doser, the challenge is not simply attracting investment but sustaining the scientific ecosystem behind it.

"A wise country recognizes that and makes sure these scientists are housed, supported and fully employed," Doser said.

The quantum race is often portrayed as a competition to build the first computer capable of breaking encryption. In reality, it is also a contest to cultivate the researchers, engineers and institutions capable of advancing an entire family of technologies over decades.

Quantum computing will continue to command headlines, particularly as governments prepare for a post-quantum cryptography transition. But the broader strategic competition is already under way. From resilient communications and precision navigation to next-generation sensing and measurement, quantum technologies are steadily becoming another pillar of national power. Countries that focus only on the computer may discover that the wider race has already moved on.