A recent MEIRSS seminar brought renewed attention to the political tensions, legal questions, and competing interests shaping the ongoing debate over expatriate participation in Lebanon’s 2026 elections.
Vote Beyond Borders
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In addition to the steps taken by various political actors locally and expatriate forces abroad, the Lebanese civil society in the country is also stepping up to apply the necessary pressure to ensure the diaspora’s fundamental right: voting for all 128 Members of Parliament (MPs) in the upcoming 2026 parliamentary elections.
On November 14, 2025, a significant event took place at Saint Joseph University of Beirut (USJ) – Humanities Campus. The Middle East Institute for Research and Strategic Studies (MEIRSS), in collaboration with Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS) – Lebanon Office, organized a fruitful seminar, titled “Voting Beyond Borders: The Expatriate Right to Shape Lebanon’s Future.”
The discussion, moderated by Fadi Chehwan (senior media news anchor and talk show host at MTV Lebanon), featured key Lebanese figures, including: Jean Nakhoul (elections analyst and expert, executive producer at MTV Lebanon and the founder of Stratify Online), MP Ghassan Hasbani (former Deputy Prime Minister and current member of the Strong Republic parliamentary bloc), Chadi Dirani (researcher and activist in political management, residing in the United States) and Nadim Chammas (Secretary-General of l’Institut du Liban, residing in France).
Aside from the seminar’s discussions, exclusive insights were also given to The Beiruter by MEIRSS’s Director Dr. Elie Elias and speakers MP Ghassan Hasbani and Jean Nakhoul, regarding the matter at hand.
MEIRSS’s aim from the seminar and its intended outcomes
The seminar began with an opening speech by MEIRSS’s director, during which it was revealed that “today, we launch an open discussion that comes as part of preparing a national policy paper that MEIRSS will submit, once completed, to the relevant authorities and decision-makers in the legislative and executive branches, concerning the full participation of Lebanese expatriates in parliamentary elections. We are preparing a policy brief on the importance of enabling expatriates to vote for all 128 MPs.” This paper will be “built on facts and compelling arguments for granting expatriates this right permanently and definitively.”
In an exclusive interview to The Beiruter, Dr. Elias asserted that its “working framework is turning political debates in Lebanon from sterile political disputes into serious, scientific discussions rooted in strategic vision and research,” which is the basis of its policy brief. Although Lebanon traditionally suffers from weak coordination between official institutions, and civil society (including research centers) in shaping public policy, the institute’s director said that “our experience at MEIRSS over the past year shows that we have established communication with a large number of MPs regarding all the studies we conduct,” adding that “we have served as a support structure for several ideas and proposals in Parliament.”
Dr. Elias also claimed that “this is not the first discussion on expatriates’ voting rights. In the elections that preceded Lebanese independence in 1943, President Petro Trad proposed involving expatriates in parliamentary elections. The reaction from certain forces, who believed it was not in their demographic interest (assuming most eligible expatriate voters were Christians), was strongly opposed. There were no accurate statistics, but the issue was exploited politically. Egyptian, Qatari, and Iraqi intervention eventually pressured France to reject expatriate voting. The compromise resulted in granting Christians 5 additional parliamentary seats relative to Muslims, based on Lebanon’s only-ever official census.”
Today, Dr. Elias added, “nearly 8 decades later, the same mindset is being reproduced: rejecting expatriate voting for political reasons. The debate is not about the right of expatriates, but rather fears of their role in the electoral and democratic process. The insistence on keeping Article 122 of the electoral law intact, and the refusal to address Article 112, which restricts expatriate participation, both indicate a persistent logic of political control and a refusal to correct national imbalances.” Thus, “the debate concerning expatriate voting is a debate over Lebanon’s political identity, not just a matter of citizenship rights. Are we moving toward a civic state that recognizes the rights of its entire people? Or are we stuck with a distorted model where internal power balances, not the popular will, determine political choices?”
MP Hasbani: the PM and the Cabinet Secretary-General bear responsibility for the delay!
MP Ghassan Hasbani revealed shocking information, claiming that “a technical error occurred in the drafting of the Cabinet’s recent draft law. The latter was labeled an ‘urgent repeated draft law’ instead of an ‘urgent draft law’ (which may have had repercussion on the effects of Article 58 of the Lebanese Constitution).”
Hasbani believed that “Prime Minister Nawaf Salam and the Secretary-General of the Council of Ministers Mahmoud Makkieh bear responsibility, especially since the Lebanese Forces (LF) ministers had previously warned of this matter before the November 6 session. In my view, this was intentional. The Prime Minister wanted to send the draft after November 20, 2025, effectively giving Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri a pass; hence the delay. Even the proposal submitted by Foreign Minister Youssef Rajji was rejected by all ministers except those of the LF. It appears that an entire system does not want confrontation, nor does it want expatriate voting.”
It is worth noting that on November 6, 2025, the Cabinet voted on a draft law stipulating the suspension of the 2017 Election Law (Law No. 44/2017) provisions related to the creation of District 16, which includes 6 overseas seats for expatriates, for a single time only (according to the formula adopted in 2022), without completely abolishing it. However, the Cabinet failed to refer it to Parliament till this day, citing the need for necessary signatures to be met.
Ali Hassan Khalil’s seat constitutes the deeper dispute regarding the diaspora voting dilemma
Jean Nakhoul unveiled the deeper dispute and the core objective behind the objections of granting expatriates the right to vote for all 128 MPs.
He claimed that “quite frankly, the entire issue revolves around MP Ali Hassan Khalil’s seat, as it is the Shia parliamentary seat most vulnerable to being overturned. Should a Christian-Sunni-Druze political alliance emerge capable of breaking a Shia seat, it would be in the South III district (specifically in Marjeyoun-Hasbaya).”
Moreover, District 16 (reserved for expatriates in the current 2017 Election Law) was heavily criticized during the seminar by all speakers. Chadi Dirani claimed that “it undermines our goal, which is change and accountability. The “displacement-driven authority” obstructing our right does not want accountability. This is a constitutional absurdity, and we will not remain silent about it.” As for Nakhoul, he believed that District 16 “turns MPs into ambassadors rather than legislators; it contradicts the very essence of parliamentary representation (just as single-member districts turn MPs into mayors). An MP’s role is legislative, not consular, despite what some are trying to advocate for.”
Furthermore, when moderator Fadi Chehwan asked that “some say: Why should expatriates be granted the right to vote for all 128 MPs when they live abroad, while Lebanese residing in the country are the ones suffering daily?” Nadim Chammas replied that “we left because of the failed policies of those in power. They cannot ask us this question.” He added that “expatriates in France, especially the latest wave that left due to economic collapse and pointless conflicts and who long to return, have begun losing faith in the promises and hopes this presidency once projected, due to the current stagnation,” however “we still hope it may return in the coming days.”
Can expatriates’ voter registration turnout improve?
If we were to compare the number of expatriates registered for the parliamentary elections in 2022 with that of 2026, based on the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Emigrants’ numbers until November 13, the difference seems quite striking. On November 13, 2021, 126,999 individuals registered for the 2022 elections, compared to merely 55,548 on the same date in 2025 for the 2026 elections; representing a staggering 71,451 (56.3%) difference.
Jean Nakhoul revealed in an exclusive interview to The Beiruter that he does not expect registration rates to increase significantly. He believed that “at best, they will constitute only one-third of the 2022 figures (not exceeding 80,000), especially if Parliament failed to approve the necessary amendments.”
Nakhoul claimed that “if we look at the countries where expatriates have registered so far, it is clear that this is the result of partisan mobilization. When we see high numbers in Canada and Australia, this points to the Lebanese Forces’ constituency. When we see high numbers in Germany and Ivory Coast, this indicates supporters of the Amal–Hezbollah duo, seeking to secure the expatriate Shia seat. And when we see high numbers in France, this reflects the Free Patriotic Movement electorate.” Each party is therefore mobilizing wherever it can. As for independents, he added, “they have instructed their supporters not to register abroad but instead to travel to Lebanon in person.”
Furthermore, Nakhoul continued by saying that “the high Shia registration rates (especially in Germany and Ivory Coast) are aimed at securing the Shia seat in District 16.” He believed that “when the current fight is to break the Amal–Hezbollah monopoly over Shia parliamentary representation, fierce resistance is only natural.”
As for who stands to benefit and who stands to lose the most, if the required amendments to the 2017 Election Law are not approved, Nakhoul believed that the latter “would be the reformists and the broader change movement, in favor of the traditional parties.” Meanwhile, the primary beneficiaries “vary by district and its internal political balances.” He stated that “for instance, if expatriate votes from the 2022 elections were removed, the Lebanese Forces would gain an additional seat in the Beirut I district (they would not lose any seat, but rather win an extra one).”
What is the fate of the 2026 parliamentary elections?
MP Hasbani claimed that “some are seeking to postpone or derail the elections. Parliament will soon begin discussing the budget, which must be passed before year’s end, meaning no other issue can be addressed until then. If electoral amendments are to be made, they will occur early next year during an extraordinary session, only months before the elections. This leads to two possible scenarios: postponement or cancellation of the elections.”
Jean Nakhoul also affirmed this stance, claiming that “in my assessment, Speaker Berri will most likely seek to buy time. He will wait for the ordinary parliamentary session to end at the close of the year and then shift responsibility to the government, which had already stated that it is not authorized to rule on the electoral law.” At that point, Nakhoul hinted that “an Orthodox MP from the North may submit a request to extend Parliament’s term, to which Speaker Berri would approve under the pretext of having ‘no alternative.’ The majority appears comfortable with this, except for the reformists, the LF, and the Kataeb party.”
From here, MP Hasbani firmly stated that “the election of 6 MPs exclusively representing expatriates will not happen! Elections may be postponed or even cancelled, but what is certain is that expatriates will not be restricted to 6 seats. This is the government’s position as well, since it acknowledged that the current law is inapplicable (given the unresolved question of where the ‘sixth continent’ lies, how expatriate seats would be geographically allocated, and the issues surrounding mega-centers and the magnetic voting card). Therefore, there can be no elections without amending the current law, as it is not executable.”
Despite this, MP Hasbani urged “expatriates to register in large numbers. They lose nothing by registering; in fact, high registration rates create the necessary pressure.” During his exclusive interview with The Beiruter, he believed that “this entire process appears intentional, aimed at discouraging expatriates from registering. This must not happen; they should register under all circumstances.” He added that the “there is still room to amend the current law in the coming days in order to preserve the elections’ schedule, integrity, and equal treatment of all Lebanese (residents and expatriates alike), just as is done in all countries that allow their citizens to vote abroad for their national MPs, with the exception of France”
Finally, as Chammas affirmed that “it is time for Parliament to once again belong to the people, not to an individual,” Hasbani believed that “we cannot rely on the Lahoud–Issa Congress letter to Trump, or on any external party. The only leverage now lies with the Lebanese people and the expatriates, through registration and the pressure they generate.”
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Anthony ChamounResearcher/Writer at The Beiruter’s Political Department
Researcher in Political Science and International Affairs, interested in international security, diplomacy, foreign policy, and conflict resolution, with a focus on Lebanon and the Middle East.
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