The new consulting race

I find the idea that AI can replace strategy work absurd. But that doesn't mean it won't disrupt the consulting industry. Quite the opposite.

Generative AI has so far caused little structural disruption across most industries. A 2025 MIT study found disruptive change in Technology and Media & Telecom. Professional Services came next as the only other industry showing significant signs of disruption.

Since then, the evidence has become harder to ignore. McKinsey, PwC, Accenture, KPMG and other large consulting firms have been reducing headcount while investing heavily in AI.

And that raises the question: What might the future of the consulting industry look like? And what will we actually need consultants for?

Real experts and trained experts

During more than two decades in C-level roles in my corporate life, I worked with all kinds of consultants: large global firms, specialized boutiques and individual experts.

Over time, I started dividing them in my mind into two groups: real experts and trained experts.

Real experts had built their expertise through real-life experience. They combined deep knowledge with lived experience. They had led transformations, made difficult decisions, experienced successes and failures and learned what happens when a good idea meets organizational reality.

Trained experts were different. Often highly intelligent and well educated, they had learned methodologies, researched industries or functions, analyzed information and transformed their findings into recommendations and polished presentations.

There is a fundamental difference between knowing about something and having lived it. And AI now makes that distinction much more important.

The consulting pyramid under pressure

AI is becoming extraordinarily good at researching, analysing, comparing, calculating, recognising patterns and structuring knowledge. Much of what trained consultants do.

But strategy is not simply the result of better analysis. Strategy means understanding context, dealing with uncertainty and conflicting interests, making choices and ultimately taking responsibility for them. This is where AI reaches its limits.

AI can and does democratise knowledge. It cannot democratise experience, intuition and judgement.

The same MIT study illustrates this human-machine distinction. For quick tasks such as emails, summaries and basic analysis, 70% of enterprise users preferred AI. For complex, multi-week projects and client management, 90% preferred humans.

And this distinction goes straight to the heart of the traditional consulting pyramid, with junior consultants doing much of the research, analysis and preparation. Precisely the kind of work AI is increasingly able to do.

My scenario is that this trained-expert layer will shrink and its role will change. Instead of doing much of the research, analysis and preparation themselves, consultants will increasingly orchestrate AI and need the expertise to challenge its output. The consulting pyramid will change with it.

But this creates a dilemma: how will tomorrow's consultants gain the experience to become the real experts at the top?

The rise of ecosystems

At the same time, I see another consulting model gaining ground: ecosystems of specialised experts with lived experience.

AI has democratised access to knowledge. In the past, one of the strengths of large consulting firms was their ability to bring together expertise across industries, functions and geographies. Size gave access to knowledge and capabilities.

AI reduces this advantage. What becomes more valuable instead is deep expertise based on lived experience, combined with the ability to connect the right capabilities at the right moment.

I therefore see a future with fewer consulting organisations trying to know everything themselves and more ecosystems that know whom to involve when. These ecosystems will coexist with large consulting firms, which I expect to remain important and increasingly AI-powered.

There is no single ecosystem model, and new ones are emerging rapidly. One example I find interesting is the Greek-based GPA Investment Group, a relatively young ecosystem. It brings companies with different expertise, relationships and capabilities together, allowing them to access and activate each other's strengths according to need.

Scale therefore becomes less about how many experts an organisation employs and more about how effectively it can access and orchestrate the expertise it needs.
 

So, what will we need consultants for?

Real experts will remain invaluable. What I expect to shrink is the need for trained experts doing work that AI can increasingly take over. Those roles that remain will change, with consultants becoming much more sophisticated users of AI.

My scenario is that AI's democratisation of knowledge is only at the beginning and is going to reshape the consulting industry. The big consulting firms are likely to remain important. At the same time, I see ecosystems of experts with lived experience who know whom to involve at the right time gaining importance.

In either model, I believe the winners will be those that combine the best of AI with human sensemaking: experience, judgement and trust.

We are only beginning to redefine how humans and machines work together. Consulting may simply be one of the first industries to show us what this could mean for many others.