When habits predict the economy

Economics is not as dry as it is often made out to be. Long before economic crises dominate headlines, they quietly seep into people’s daily lives, revealing themselves through spending habits, small choices, and seemingly insignificant details.
For this reason, modern economics is no longer measured solely by GDP, inflation rates, or currency collapses, but increasingly by human behavior, giving rise to some of the strangest economic indicators in the world. What are they, and what about Lebanon?

Lipstick never lies

The Lipstick Index is one of the most well-known unconventional economic indicators used to read consumer sentiment during downturns. The concept first emerged in 2001 and is attributed to Leonard Lauder, former CEO of Estée Lauder, who observed a curious paradox: as purchasing power declined and overall consumption slowed, lipstick sales increased.

The logic behind the index lies in what economists call “affordable luxury.” During economic stress, consumers, particularly women, cut back on large, high-ticket purchases such as cars, travel, or jewelry. But they do not stop spending altogether. Instead, they redirect their consumption toward small, low-cost items that provide a sense of control and emotional comfort. Lipstick, in this context, becomes less a beauty product and more a psychological coping mechanism.

During the 2008 global financial crisis, the global cosmetics sector recorded growth of 5–7%, despite sharp contractions in overall consumer spending. In several markets, major beauty companies reported lipstick sales increases of nearly 10%. Between 2009 and 2011, demand for small beauty products continued to rise, even as economic recovery remained fragile.

Politics heats up… and pizza orders follow

Among the most curious, and surprisingly consistent, indicators is the Pizza Index, which tracks spikes in pizza delivery orders during major political and security crises, particularly around decision-making centers such as the Pentagon and intelligence headquarters.

The index recently resurfaced following reports of the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, when an unusual surge in pizza orders was observed at restaurants near the Pentagon in Arlington, Virginia. According to online order-tracking accounts, the increase began around 2:00 a.m. local time, roughly an hour before the U.S. operation in Caracas reportedly began, before tapering off once the operation was underway.

The logic behind this “delicious” indicator is straightforward: during moments of heightened tension, working hours stretch late into the night, breaks are cancelled, and quick, practical meals replace structured dining. In this context, a pizza box becomes an indirect economic signal of crisis intensity and decision-making urgency.

When love goes online…

Not all economic indicators are tied to goods and services. Some reflect social and emotional behavior. One such measure is the First Date Indicator, which tracks activity on online dating platforms as an indirect signal of economic stress.

The idea is simple: during periods of prosperity, people tend to meet potential partners through in-person social activities, cafés, travel, events, and nightlife. During downturns, however, these options become more expensive or less accessible, pushing people toward lower-cost, digital alternatives. As a result, engagement on dating apps increases.

This pattern was observed in the United States during the 2008 recession, when studies showed rising activity on dating platforms alongside declining spending on restaurants, travel, and social outings. The trend resurfaced after COVID lockdowns began to ease, when Match.com reported a significant surge in traffic and user engagement, reflecting both changed social habits and continued economic pressure.

The economy underwear-level

Men, too, have their own unconventional indicator. Known as the Men’s Underwear Index, the concept was popularized by former Federal Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan.

The assumption is deceptively simple: underwear is a necessity, but one that men are often reluctant to replace quickly. In normal economic conditions, purchases occur regularly. During recessions or periods of uncertainty, however, men tend to delay buying new underwear, even when the old ones are worn out, because the expense feels non-urgent.

The result is a decline in sales during downturns, followed by a rebound as economic confidence improves. While the indicator may seem absurd at first glance, it is compelling precisely because it tracks private, habitual spending decisions, often revealing shifts in consumer confidence before official data does. In economics, what remains unseen can sometimes speak the loudest.

“The situation needs a long breath”

In Lebanon, where social habits and economics are deeply intertwined, a homegrown indicator emerges: the Shisha Index.

During relatively stable periods, shisha is consumed as part of a full social experience, complete meals, drinks, and sometimes multiple shishas per table. In times of economic hardship, the equation changes. As purchasing power declines, Lebanese consumers shift from ordering a full meal to simply ordering time.

One shisha becomes the centerpiece of the table. Orders shrink to a single juice, coffee, or nothing at all. In many cases, an entire group shares one shisha for hours.

This behavior reflects a precise economic reality: under financial pressure, people seek the longest possible experience at the lowest possible cost. In Lebanese culture, shisha perfectly fulfills that role. The Shisha Index does not measure prosperity by how full restaurants appear, but by what is actually being consumed. When shisha replaces dinner, and the breath lasts longer than the ability to pay, the economy may still be breathing, but it is clearly struggling.

What the numbers miss

In economics, indicators are not always charts and spreadsheets. Sometimes they arrive in a lipstick tube, a pizza box, a dating app notification, or a shared shisha hose.
Before official numbers declare an economic emergency, you can be sure of one thing: the lipstick is sold out, the pizza has arrived, the first date has gone online, and the shisha is already on the table.