When Lebanon’s real estate mirror speaks

For decades, Lebanon’s real estate sector has served as a precise mirror of the country’s political, economic, and security conditions. One of the main pillars of the Lebanese economy, the sector has never been merely about investment activity, but also a long-standing indicator of economic and social stability. Over the years, real estate has consistently proven to be among the first sectors to react to major shifts, whether during periods of growth or phases of contraction. When confidence rises, demand moves quickly; when it falters, the market slips into prolonged anticipation. So where did this sector stand during Lebanon’s pivotal year of 2025, and what do the latest figures reveal?

A promising start that quickly stalled

The real estate market entered 2025 with momentum unseen in years, driven by political and economic developments that gradually reopened the door to confidence. In an interview with The Beiruter, Walid Moussa, President of the Real Estate Brokers and Consultants Syndicate in Lebanon, explains that the election of a president, the formation of a government, and the lifting of restrictions on Emirati visitors to Lebanon all acted as strong pull factors, reviving interest among Lebanese expatriates and Arab investors in property purchases.

However, this positive trajectory did not last. The Iran–Israel war abruptly froze this renewed interest, pushing investors back into a wait-and-see mode that continues today. According to Moussa, any revival in demand remains tightly linked to security, political, and economic stability.

The core obstacle

At the heart of Lebanon’s real estate challenges lies a single, overriding factor: financing. Moussa stresses that “the real estate market cannot return to normal without a healthy banking sector. Developers cannot build without bank financing, and buyers cannot purchase without housing loans.” This structural imbalance has struck at the core of the real estate cycle, drying up both supply and demand, freezing new projects, and sharply limiting purchasing options for large segments of the population.

Moussa links any genuine recovery to the adoption of key reform laws in 2026, foremost among them bank restructuring legislation, addressing the financial gap, and clarifying the fate of depositors’ funds. These measures, he argues, are not only about protecting depositors’ rights, but are essential to restoring confidence in the banking sector and reviving housing loans, which once formed the backbone of Lebanon’s real estate market.

In the absence of such reforms, the market has remained largely cash-driven, restricting purchasing power to those with available liquidity or remittances from abroad, and effectively excluding resident Lebanese citizens from homeownership. While the Housing Bank offers limited loans of up to around $100,000, Moussa notes that these programs, despite their social importance, are insufficient to restart the market on a broad scale or compensate for the absence of structured bank financing.

Who bought in 2025?

Between 2024 and 2025, property prices continued their upward trajectory, registering notable increases throughout 2025. Yet, according to Moussa, this rise was not driven by higher transaction volumes, but rather by owners’ efforts to reprice their properties closer to pre-2019 levels, amid global inflation and rising gold prices. In this context, real estate has increasingly been viewed as a store of value rather than a speculative investment.

Purchasing activity in 2025, Moussa explains, was largely concentrated among Lebanese expatriates, certain local investors, and individuals holding cash who feared the erosion of their savings through inflation. In contrast, resident Lebanese buyers remained largely absent from the market, due to weak purchasing power and salaries that have yet to recover to pre-crisis levels.

Rentals under pressure

Unlike the sales market, rental prices in Lebanon have not experienced comparable increases. Moussa notes that rents remain constrained by a single decisive factor: the limited purchasing power of resident Lebanese households, amid stagnant wages and rising living costs.

Market observers indicate that rental demand remains relatively active, particularly for small and medium-sized apartments, but faces a clear financial ceiling that prevents sharp price hikes. Many landlords hesitate to raise rents in line with sale prices, fearing tenant loss or prolonged vacancy periods.

Regional disparities are also evident in the rental market. Prices remain higher in areas with strong expatriate presence or demand driven by employment and services, while remaining more flexible in other regions, especially outside Greater Beirut.

“Prime” areas first

Regional disparities in pricing became especially pronounced in 2025. Moussa explains that in areas with higher purchasing power and strong expatriate demand, such as Downtown Beirut, select neighborhoods in Achrafieh and Ras Beirut, as well as Faqra, Faraya, Amchit’s coastline, and Batroun prices have returned close to pre-financial crisis levels, with a gap of roughly 20 percent compared to other regions.

Data from the Real Estate Brokers and Consultants Syndicate (R.E.A.L) supports this trend. Between 2024 and 2025, residential property prices rose sharply, led by Beirut at 32.83%, followed by Nabatieh 30.41%, Jbeil 29.8%, and Baabda 29.59%. In Metn, prices rose by 26.11%, in Zahle by 25.13%, while Keserwan recorded the lowest relative increase at 10.06%. These gains do not signal a full return to pre-2019 price levels, but rather mark a clear turning point after a harsh correction imposed by the financial collapse, declining purchasing power, and years of subdued demand.

Even within Beirut itself, the market tells multiple stories. While prices per square meter exceed $6,800 in premium waterfront areas such as Zaituna Bay and the Marina, they fall below $1,700 in neighborhoods like Karakol el-Druze and Mazraa, highlighting a fragmented real estate landscape shaped by location, property quality, and external demand.

Dahiyeh: A delicate market

Regarding Beirut’s southern suburbs and southern Lebanon, Moussa describes the real estate situation as “delicate and highly sensitive.” Most residents who returned after the latest war did so to stay, due to their ties to work, businesses, schools, and daily life, dispelling claims of mass displacement.

At the same time, Dahiyeh region is witnessing a high number of properties listed for sale, driven by fears of renewed Israeli attacks, but with little actual demand. Buyers who do enter the market do so at deeply discounted prices, betting on long-term gains should security conditions improve.

A Sector Still Waiting for Stability

In conclusion, what Lebanon’s real estate sector experienced in 2025 was a fragile, gradual recovery, one still dependent on political and security stability, as well as the restoration of confidence in the banking sector. The market has yet to fully emerge from its bottleneck, but has entered a phase of repositioning, where risks are being repriced before the square meter itself.

The central question today is no longer where prices may head in the coming months, but how long this sector can endure while waiting for the stability needed to reclaim its natural role as a genuine economic driver in a country still standing on the edge.