Why does Hezbollah want to empty the Christian border villages

Source: Nida Al Watan

Grad and Katyusha rockets are inherently inaccurate weapons. They were designed to target broad geographical areas rather than specific objectives. However, the repeated incidents of rockets launched from southern Lebanon falling inside Christian border towns, most notably Rmeish, Qlayaa, Ain Ebel, and Debel, have revived questions that go beyond the technical dimension and extend into the political and security realms.

At a time when Hezbollah insists on presenting itself as a “resistance” movement whose weapons are directed toward Israel, residents of these towns have once again found themselves within the circle of direct or indirect targeting. Rockets have landed near their homes, fields, and communities before reaching the Israeli settlements that were supposedly the primary targets of the launches.

The questions become even more pressing given that these villages have, throughout years of conflict, represented a model of resilience and steadfastness, with their inhabitants remaining on their land despite security threats and harsh economic conditions. This raises legitimate concerns about what is really happening and whether these incidents are merely repeated military errors or part of something broader related to the demographic and geographic realities of the border region.

In this context, retired Brigadier General Said Al-Qozah, a former Lebanese Army artillery specialist and military expert, offers a technical and military assessment of the issue, dismissing the idea that the incidents can be explained solely as isolated accidents.

Al-Qozah explains that Grad and Katyusha rockets naturally have a high dispersion rate compared with conventional artillery and are generally used against what military doctrine describes as “area targets” rather than “point targets.” At the same time, he notes several factors that can cause rockets to deviate from their intended targets, including the use of old or poorly stored munitions. Such conditions can allow moisture to penetrate the propellant charge located at the rear of the rocket, potentially causing combustion to stop during flight and leading the rocket to fall short of its target.

He adds that “the pressures of the battlefield and constant Israeli aerial surveillance by drones and reconnaissance aircraft often force operators to conduct rapid launch operations, increasing the likelihood of errors in calculating direction and elevation angles or in determining launch-site coordinates.”

He also points to “another factor related to the instability of launch platforms, as an imbalance in the rocket launcher after the first rocket is fired can cause subsequent rockets to deviate from their intended trajectories,” in addition to what he describes as insufficient military expertise among some Hezbollah personnel.

Al-Qozah further notes that “many of the launch platforms in use are not standard military systems manufactured according to the specifications of regular armies. Rather, they are locally produced or field-modified platforms,” which negatively affects accuracy and stability during firing. He also references previous Lebanese Army operations in which Hezbollah weapons depots were seized and weapons destroyed.

The most significant aspect of Al-Qozah’s assessment, however, relates to geographical distances. According to field data, Qlayaa lies between 6 and 7 kilometers from the nearest border point at Kfarkela, while Marjayoun is approximately eight kilometers from Metula. Debel is around four kilometers from the Blue Line, Ain Ebel about 5 kilometers, and Rmeish only roughly 1.5 kilometers from the border.

Based on these figures, Al-Qozah argues that an error of 5 kilometers or more raises many military questions. He explains that the misfiring of 1 or 2 rockets due to a technical malfunction remains plausible, but the landing of entire volleys or large numbers of rockets inside populated towns requires a serious investigation to determine the real causes.

Alongside the military analysis, sources monitoring the situation told Nida Al Watan that the hypothesis of pure error does not appear entirely convincing, particularly given that some of the affected towns are located at relatively significant distances from the direct line of confrontation.

These sources argue that the repeated fall of rockets inside Christian border villages necessitates political and security questions that go beyond technical considerations.

They do not rule out the possibility that the undeclared objective behind these incidents may be to gradually encourage part of the local population to leave their villages, thereby allowing additional border areas to be transformed into open zones for military activity and rocket launches toward Israeli territory, free from local objections or existing population density.

According to this interpretation, some of the rockets launched by those who claim to represent the “resistance” are striking Rmeish, Qlayaa, and Ain Ebel before reaching places such as the Israeli city of Kiryat Shmona or Tel Aviv.