Women, work, and growth: the Middle East’s untapped engine

In its October 2025 Economic Outlook for the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, the World Bank delivers a clear message: without greater female participation in the workforce, the region will continue to miss out on a vital source of growth, stability, and social progress.

The report, titled “Jobs and Women: Untapped Talent and Unrealized Growth,” paints a cautiously optimistic picture. Economic prospects have improved since April 2025, with regional GDP growth expected to reach 2.8% in 2025 and 3.3% in 2026, compared to 2.3% in 2024.

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are expected to lead the recovery, with growth accelerating from 2.2% in 2024 to 3.5% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026, supported by the gradual phase-out of OPEC+ production cuts and strong non-oil sector expansion.

However, developing oil exporters face a tougher road ahead, with growth projected to slow to 0.5% in 2025 due to conflict disruptions and oil production adjustments. On the other hand, oil-importing economies are set to benefit from stronger consumption, investment, tourism recovery, and macroeconomic reforms, pushing growth to 3.7% in 2025.

The demographic equation: too many job seekers, too few jobs

The World Bank warns that the region sits “at the heart of the global jobs challenge.” Over the next 25 years, the working-age population will increase by 220 million people, a 40% rise. Without deep structural reforms, this demographic boom could become a liability instead of an opportunity.

One of the most powerful, yet underused, levers for growth lies in women’s participation in the labor force. Despite decades of investment in education, and the fact that women in many countries now graduate at equal or higher rates than men, only one in five women of working age in the MENAAP region is active in the labor market.

The barriers keping women out of work

The report identifies a web of interconnected barriers: restrictive social norms, discriminatory laws, lack of equal pay and flexible work provisions, limited mobility, and unsafe transportation.

Highly skilled women often turn to the public sector, which offers stability but limits entrepreneurship and private-sector participation. The outcome is a familiar one, high female unemployment, wage gaps, and a concentration of women in government jobs.

The World Bank calls for systemic policy reforms: enforcing equal pay laws, combating workplace harassment, expanding flexible work options, and investing in safe public transport. It also highlights the potential of remote work and digital platforms as short-term enablers for women in countries with strong social constraints.

Lebanon: between reconstruction and resilience

Lebanon’s chapter offers a bittersweet picture. After years of collapse, the economy is finally showing signs of recovery: GDP growth is projected at 3.5% in 2025 and 4% in 2026, after a steep 7.1% contraction in 2024.

The election of a new president and government in early 2025 has restored a degree of political stability, while tourism rebounded strongly in the summer months, helping fuel growth.

Yet the scars of war remain deep: 1.2 million displaced people, $6.8 billion in physical damages, and $7.2 billion in economic losses. Poverty has soared more than half of the population now lives on less than $8.3 a day, up from just 5.5% in 2013.

Still, macroeconomic indicators are improving: inflation fell by 14% year-on-year in July 2026, and the current account deficit is expected to narrow to 15.8% of GDP in 2025.

The World Bank’s conclusion is unequivocal: the MENAAP region cannot afford to underuse its female talent. Increasing women’s participation in the workforce is not just a matter of fairness, it is an economic imperative to boost productivity, counter demographic pressures, and strengthen resilience against future shocks.

Simply put: without women, growth will remain incomplete.