Yemen’s frozen war begins to thaw

For four years, Saudi Arabia and the Houthis had settled into an uneasy live-and-let-live arrangement, avoiding direct confrontation even as Yemen’s war remained unresolved. That arrangement broke on July 13, when ballistic missiles and drones were launched from Houthi-controlled Yemen toward Abha International Airport. While Saudi air defenses intercepted the projectiles and no casualties were reported, the current situation on the ground shows that further confrontation is increasingly probable.

How did Yemen move from an uneasy truce to the brink of renewed war? To understand the latest exchange, it is necessary to look back at the geopolitical situation and the military buildup that had been unfolding for weeks.

A truce without peace

Yemen’s war never formally ended. The United Nations-brokered truce expired in October 2022, but its central military understanding largely survived. Saudi Arabia stopped its sustained bombing campaign, the Houthis halted cross-border attacks on the kingdom, and the main ground fronts settled into an unstable state between war and peace.

That pause froze Yemen’s territorial division along the front lines. The Houthis retained control of Sanaa, most of the populous northwest and the Red Sea port of Hodeida. On the other side, the internationally recognized government, backed principally by Saudi Arabia, remained based in Aden and controlled most of the south and east. This division left the Houthis in control of the capital, major infrastructure such as Sanaa airport and much of Yemen’s population, but without international recognition or full control over the country’s external access.

Under the Chicago Convention, states exercise complete and exclusive sovereignty over their airspace. In Yemen, however, Sanaa airport is controlled by the Houthis, while the authority to approve international flights formally belongs to the internationally recognized government. Every aircraft attempting to land there therefore raises a larger question over who has the right to open Yemen to the outside world, with the Houthis portraying the restrictions as a Saudi-led blockade designed to limit their sovereignty.

By contrast, Riyadh and the Yemeni government argue that control over Yemen’s airspace and coastline is necessary to prevent Iran from transferring weapons and military personnel to the Houthis. Those fears are reinforced by repeated American interceptions of dhows carrying Iranian weapons toward Yemen, including rifles, ammunition, missile parts and guidance systems.

Saudi Arabia consolidates its camp

At the same time, the regional balance behind the anti-Houthi camp was undergoing a major change. Growing differences between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates culminated in a confrontation over the expansion of the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council. After Saudi-backed forces reversed that expansion and the Emirates withdrew its remaining military presence, Riyadh emerged as the principal external sponsor of the internationally recognized government. It then began using money and political pressure to absorb fragmented Yemeni formations, including fighters previously funded by Abu Dhabi, into a more coherent military and administrative structure.

From the Houthi perspective, this consolidation carried a possible military meaning. A government camp divided among Saudi-backed, Emirati-backed, separatist, Islamist and local factions was being reorganized under Riyadh’s influence. Even without evidence of an imminent government offensive, the new structure could eventually give Saudi Arabia a stronger platform from which to confront the Houthis.

From mobilization to fighting

The Houthis therefore responded with increasingly open mobilization. In late June, their General Mobilization Forces announced that they were raising readiness to supply the fronts with fighters. The Saudi-backed side raised its readiness in parallel. While those steps did not amount to the public announcement of a new war, they showed that the anti-Houthi camp was preparing for the possibility that the front lines could reopen.

The first direct warning between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia came on July 3. A Mahan Air aircraft, the first publicly confirmed Iranian civilian flight to Sanaa in roughly a decade, landed at the Houthi-controlled Sanaa airport to collect a delegation travelling to Tehran for the funeral of Iran’s late supreme leader, Ali Khamenei. According to the Houthis, Saudi warplanes attempted to prevent the aircraft from landing but withdrew after coming under fire from Houthi air defenses.

Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree also warned that any further interference by the kingdom would bring a comprehensive response against Saudi airports and other interests on land and at sea. In response, the Saudi-led coalition warned that any attempt to attack the kingdom or violate Yemeni sovereignty would face unprecedented determination and force.

Within days, the tension moved to the ground. On July 5, Houthi forces assaulted government positions around Jabal Dabbas in southern Hodeidah. Reports from the front described a full-fledged assault involving Houthi infantry supported by mortar and sniper fire. While they temporarily entered positions held by Saudi-backed forces, reinforcements counterattacked and restored the line.

Had the offensive succeeded, it would have given the Houthis a strategic height from which to bombard their opponents’ logistical lines and push further into their rear. However, concurrent reports indicated that there was no conclusive evidence that the assault was the opening of a broader campaign. The more immediate objective may have been to test the defensive cohesion of the reorganized Saudi-backed camp.

From Sanaa to Abha

The confrontation reached its decisive point on July 13, when an Iranian aircraft attempted to return the Houthi delegation from Tehran. Yemen’s internationally recognised government had rejected Iran’s request to operate the flight to Sanaa and offered to return the delegation on a Yemenia Airways aircraft.

When the Iranian plane approached, strikes hit Sanaa airport’s runway. The Yemeni defense ministry claimed the operation and described the flight as a violation of national sovereignty. The Houthis blamed Saudi Arabia and declared that the strike had ended the period of de-escalation. The Iranian aircraft diverted to Houthi-controlled Hodeidah, where it landed. What followed was the targeting of Abha International Airport from Houthi-controlled Yemen.

The danger now is that the different fronts will begin feeding one another. Further strikes on Houthi-controlled territory could provoke additional attacks on Saudi Arabia, while every cross-border exchange would encourage both Yemeni camps to reinforce their positions and reopen dormant fronts.

The timing also matters beyond Yemen. Ahead of any renewed confrontation between Iran and the United States, any shift in Yemen’s current status quo could significantly alter how that confrontation unfolds.