The coming rocket shortage

Space has rarely been easier to reach, yet the industry that opened orbit to thousands of new satellites may soon find itself short of ways to get them there.

The world conducted 325 orbital launches in 2025, carrying 4,544 spacecraft, according to BryceTech, a U.S. space-industry analytics and consulting firm. Launches rose about 25% from the previous year, while the number of spacecraft deployed jumped 54%. Since every satellite bound for orbit must be launched aboard a rocket, the rapid growth of the satellite industry is directly increasing demand for rocket capacity.

Yet that growth has also exposed how concentrated launch capacity remains. According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), just four providers accounted for about 82% of orbital launches in 2025, up from roughly 71% in 2020, with SpaceX alone carrying out around half. That dependence is becoming more consequential just as the industry enters a difficult transition. SpaceX is preparing to wind down Falcon 9, the rocket that transformed the economics of reaching orbit, while its successor Starship and competing vehicles have yet to reproduce its combination of frequency, reliability and availability. At the same time, governments, commercial satellite operators and large satellite networks such as Starlink are competing for launch capacity.

The satellite boom has therefore created a new problem for the space economy: finding enough rockets to sustain it.

More rockets, concentrated capacity

The launch industry appears considerably more diverse than it did five years ago. The number of organizations attempting orbital launches rose from 16 in 2020 to 25 in 2025, according to the OECD’s The Space Economy at a Glance 2026. But only 13 providers conducted at least three launches last year. SpaceX, China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, Rocket Lab, and Roscosmos together carried out more than four-fifths of the global total.

The growing roster of rocket companies therefore overstates the capacity actually available to satellite operators, who need reliable, frequent launches they can book.

Even among proven rockets, not all launch capacity is available for sale. Falcon 9 flew 165 missions in 2025, according to Payload, a space-industry publication, but 122, or about 74%, were dedicated Starlink flights. In other words, nearly three-quarters therefore deployed SpaceX’s own satellites rather than those of outside customers. Demand continued to rise into 2026, with 1,150 spacecraft reaching orbit on just 81 launches in the second quarter alone.

Falcon 9 leaves a difficult gap

Few vehicles have altered access to orbit as profoundly as Falcon 9. Reusability allowed SpaceX to fly the same boosters repeatedly, driving launch frequency upward while giving satellite operators regular opportunities to share missions.

That model is now entering its final years. SpaceX is now winding down Falcon 9 as it concentrates on Starship, the larger reusable system intended for future Starlink deployments and missions to the Moon and beyond. The company has stopped selling some shared Falcon 9 missions, and some customers have been unable to secure flights after 2028, the Wall Street Journal reported.

Alternatives are arriving, but achieving Falcon 9’s launch frequency takes time. The Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2026–2046 illustrates the enormous carrying capacity promised by the next generation. The FAA estimates that Starship could carry about 150 metric tons into low Earth orbit, compared with roughly 45 tons for Blue Origin’s New Glenn and 24 tons for Relativity Space’s Terran R.

But promised capacity matters only once a rocket can fly reliably and repeatedly. Blue Origin, for example, suffered a significant anomaly during a New Glenn test on May 28 that damaged its launch complex and required rebuilding before returning to flight. The company is simultaneously constructing a second New Glenn pad at Cape Canaveral specifically to support higher-frequency operations. 

The bottleneck reaches the ground

Even a fleet of new rockets cannot solve the shortage without enough places to launch them, making launch pads and supporting ground infrastructure another potential constraint on how quickly orbital traffic can grow.

NASA’s June 2026 NASA’s Launch Infrastructure audit found that its launch facilities are already struggling to accommodate rising demand. Kennedy Space Center in Florida and Wallops Flight Facility in Virginia, two major U.S. government launch sites that also support commercial missions, are expected to operate near capacity around 2028 and 2029. In the June audit, NASA’s inspector general warned that aging facilities and limited locations for new heavy-launch pads could constrain further expansion.

Similar pressure is appearing at military ranges. The U.S. Government Accountability Office found that commercial launches from federal launch sites have more than quadrupled since 2021. Government demand is rising alongside them. The U.S. Defense Department anticipates about 85 national-security launches between 2025 and 2029, compared with 40 during the preceding five years. 

The pressure is not confined to the United States. Europe is rebuilding independent access to orbit around its new Ariane 6 rocket and other commercial vehicles, while China and Russia maintain large domestic launch systems. Smaller satellite operators worldwide, however, often depend on access to rockets controlled by a relatively small number of providers.

Expected launch growth leaves little room for delays in new rockets. The FAA’s 2026 forecast projects authorized U.S. commercial space operations rising from 204 launches and re-entries in fiscal 2025 to between 282 and 507 annually by 2036. It also cautions that accidents can ground new vehicles for months, disrupting launch schedules.

The emerging shortage, then, is not literally a world without rockets. It is a shortage of something more specific and economically important: proven rockets with available payload space, functioning infrastructure, and launch dates that customers can actually secure.

The space industry spent years making satellites cheaper and easier to build. Its next challenge is ensuring there are enough rides waiting when they are ready to leave Earth.