Foreign investment is a game of fewer, bigger bets

The biggest foreign investment projects are commanding more of the world’s capita.. The number of new projects announced around the world is falling, while a growing share of capital is flowing into enormous individual investments. Data centres, semiconductor fabs, and other strategic facilities can cost tens of billions of dollars, concentrating investment in a relatively small number of projects and countries with the power, infrastructure and specialized workforce they require.

In 2025, the number of announced “greenfield” projects, investments in new or expanded operations abroad rather than acquisitions of existing businesses, fell 10 percent worldwide even as their combined value edged up 1 percent to about $1.39 trillion, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development’s (UNCTAD) June 2026 World Investment Report.

Behind those totals is an investment landscape in which a handful of extraordinarily expensive facilities can sustain global spending, even as thousands of other projects disappear. Such concentration, beyond changing what headline investment figures actually represent, carries particular consequences for economies that lack the infrastructure and industrial ecosystems required to compete for them.

The rise of the megaproject

Although billion-dollar investments are hardly new, their prominence in global investment has grown considerably.

UNCTAD defines a “megaproject” as a greenfield investment worth at least $1 billion. Such projects accounted for about 44 percent of announced global greenfield investment value in 2025, double their 22 percent share in 2017.

The concentration becomes even more striking at the level of individual projects. Data from fDi Markets, the Financial Times database tracking announced cross-border greenfield investments, show that foreign investors announced roughly 7,400 projects worth more than $700 billion during the first half of 2025. Only 62 involved commitments above $1 billion, yet those projects accounted for more than one-third of all announced capital expenditure.

Individual projects can now rival the annual investment totals of entire countries. UNCTAD records a planned $100 billion semiconductor investment by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company in the United States, a $43.4 billion Emirati-backed data-centre project in France, and a $40.6 billion Chinese-backed digital infrastructure project in Brazil. The Brazilian project alone represented 43 percent of all announced greenfield investment in Latin America and the Caribbean in 2025.

Where the money is going

Megaprojects are concentrated in some of the world’s most capital-intensive industries.

UNCTAD calculates that announced greenfield investment in strategic sectors rose from $109 billion in 2020 to $576 billion in 2025. AI infrastructure and related technologies accounted for three-fifths of strategic-sector investment in 2025, approaching $350 billion.

The scale of the shift is particularly visible in data centres, driven by soaring demand for computing infrastructure. UNCTAD’s January 2026 Global Investment Trends Monitor estimated that data centres attracted more than $270 billion in greenfield investment in 2025, exceeding one-fifth of the worldwide total. Meanwhile, project numbers in tariff-exposed industries closely tied to global supply chains, including textiles, electronics, and machinery, fell 25 percent.

These newer projects have demanding requirements. Hyperscale data centres need electricity, land, connectivity and often water, while semiconductor fabs require specialized workers, utilities and developed industrial ecosystems. Government subsidies further reduce the importance of low labor costs alone.

A harder contest for developing economies

As capital gravitates toward expensive technology and infrastructure projects, the divide between countries able to host them and those competing for more traditional investment is becoming more pronounced.

The OECD’s April 2026 FDI in Figures found that the number of announced greenfield projects worldwide fell 14 percent in 2025, while capital expenditure declined just 3 percent. Greenfield capital expenditure fell 24 percent in emerging and developing economies, including a 44 percent contraction in manufacturing, while it rose 18 percent in advanced economies. Just five host economies received 46 percent of worldwide announced greenfield capital expenditure.

The concentration is particularly pronounced in the strategic industries attracting some of the largest investments. Between 2020 and 2025, high-income economies captured 72 percent of strategic-sector greenfield investment, according to UNCTAD. Low-income and lower-middle-income countries together received only about 10 percent, compared with more than 20 percent of investment outside strategic sectors.

Income alone, however, does not determine which countries can attract these projects. India, Malaysia and Indonesia have attracted hyperscale data-centre investment, while Vietnam has secured major semiconductor projects. 

Large markets, abundant energy, established manufacturing networks or valuable mineral reserves can provide developing economies with an opening, although the infrastructure and capabilities required to secure the largest investments set a considerably higher bar for entry.

More capital does not always mean more development

Headline investment figures can consequently give a misleading impression of economic reach. High global spending can coexist with fewer projects and fewer potential host countries.

The employment consequences can differ too. A billion dollars committed to a capital-intensive data centre does not have the same relationship with local employment and suppliers as the same amount distributed among dozens of manufacturing plants. UNCTAD warns that the dominance of megaprojects can obscure smaller investments whose contributions to employment and local business links disappear beneath enormous aggregate values.

Foreign investment is not disappearing. There is still more than a trillion dollars in greenfield capital seeking destinations around the world. But as individual bets become larger, the countries able to compete for them may become fewer. For developing economies, attracting foreign capital may depend less on offering a low-cost place to produce and more on possessing the infrastructure, skills, and industrial networks that allow a multibillion-dollar project to operate at all.