The April anomaly behind Lebanon’s customs revenue decline

Lebanon imported LBP 756.3 trillion worth of goods between January and May 2026, according to Banque du Liban data sourced from the Customs Higher Council. Over the same five months in 2025, imports totalled LBP 728.6 trillion, meaning the value of imported goods increased by around 3.8 per cent.

Customs receipts moved in the opposite direction, falling from just under LBP 47 trillion in the first five months of 2025 to LBP 34.8 trillion over the same period this year, a decline of 25.9 per cent. Taken alone, those figures suggest a straightforward divergence. Broken down month by month, the picture is less uniform.

LBP 756.3 trillion in imports, up 3.8%

The increase in imports was concentrated at the beginning of the year. January 2026 recorded imports worth LBP 169.7 trillion, up 32.7 per cent from a year earlier. February followed almost the same pattern, with imports reaching LBP 166.5 trillion, an increase of 32.5 per cent.

Growth then slowed. March imports stood at LBP 145.2 trillion, around 5.1 per cent higher than a year earlier. By April and May, the direction had reversed: imports fell to LBP 148.2 trillion in April, about 14.7 per cent below April 2025, before dropping to LBP 126.6 trillion in May, around 22.4 per cent lower year on year.

The five-month increase therefore does not represent a continuous rise in imports throughout 2026. Strong growth in January and February was large enough to outweigh the declines recorded later. Lebanese Customs' separate private-import series, reported in US dollars, shows the same broad movement, with imports at $1.897 billion in January and $1.861 billion in February, before falling to $1.414 billion in May.

LBP 34.8 trillion in customs receipts, down 25.9%

Customs receipts followed a different monthly path. In January 2026, the state collected LBP 5.43 trillion, up 50.3 per cent from a year earlier. February receipts rose from LBP 3.36 trillion to LBP 6.54 trillion, an increase of about 94.4 per cent.

The break appears in March, when receipts fell from LBP 10.6 trillion in March 2025 to LBP 7.35 trillion in March 2026, a decline of 30.6 per cent.

The largest difference came in April. Customs receipts reached LBP 23.37 trillion in April 2025, compared with LBP 7.72 trillion in April 2026, a fall of almost 67 per cent. In May, the pattern changed again: receipts rose from LBP 6.05 trillion to LBP 7.78 trillion, an increase of 28.5 per cent, even though imports were lower than a year earlier.

The five-month total therefore masks substantial variation between months.

One month accounted for almost half of 2025 receipts

The most important number in the comparison is LBP 23.37 trillion, the amount of customs receipts recorded in April 2025 alone. It represented 49.7 per cent of all customs receipts collected between January and May 2025.

April also stands out against the months around it. Customs receipts were LBP 10.6 trillion in March 2025, surged to LBP 23.37 trillion in April and then fell to LBP 6.05 trillion in May. They remained lower in June, July and August, at LBP 8.89 trillion, LBP 8.79 trillion and LBP 5.76 trillion respectively.

Remove April from both years and the comparison changes completely. Across January, February, March and May, customs receipts were actually 14.7 per cent higher in 2026 than during the same four months of 2025.

The official five-month decline of 25.9 per cent is still mathematically correct. But it is heavily influenced by the unusually high April 2025 figure rather than a uniform fall across the period.

April imports fell 14.7%, receipts fell 67%

April is also where the difference between the two series becomes clearest. The value of imports fell by 14.7 per cent between April 2025 and April 2026, while customs receipts fell by almost 67 per cent.

That does not, by itself, show that customs collection became less effective. Imports and customs receipts measure different things, and monthly import values do not automatically translate into a fixed amount of customs revenue.

The official data establish that April 2025 was exceptional, but they do not identify the reason for the spike. Without a published administrative explanation, attributing it to a tariff change, payment schedule, exemption or enforcement measure would go beyond what the figures can support.

The relationship changes every month

The instability is also visible when customs receipts are compared with the value of imports recorded in the same month. In January 2025, customs receipts were equivalent to roughly 2.8 per cent of that month's import value, followed by 2.7 per cent in February, 7.7 per cent in March, 13.4 per cent in April and 3.7 per cent in May.

The 2026 pattern was less extreme, moving from approximately 3.2 per cent in January to 3.9 per cent in February, 5.1 per cent in March, 5.2 per cent in April and 6.1 per cent in May.

These figures are not customs tariff rates. They simply divide monthly customs receipts by the total CIF value of imports recorded during the same month. They show that the relationship between the two series varies substantially over time.

January and February tell the opposite story

The headline “imports up, customs revenue down” is accurate for the first five months of 2026 as a whole, but not for every month.

In January, imports increased by 32.7 per cent, while customs receipts increased by 50.3 per cent. In February, imports rose 32.5 per cent, while customs receipts almost doubled. May also moved in the opposite direction to the five-month headline: imports fell 22.4 per cent, while customs receipts increased 28.5 per cent.

March and April are therefore the months pulling the cumulative customs-receipt comparison below its 2025 level, with April accounting for the largest gap.

The latest comparable period ends in May

There is also an important timing limitation. Banque du Liban currently publishes its import series through June 2026, when imports stood at LBP 152.1 trillion, but its customs-receipts series runs only through May 2026.

January to May is therefore the latest period for which the two BDL series can be compared over exactly the same months. Extending the analysis into June would mean adding another month of imports without a corresponding customs-receipt figure in the same series.

Banque du Liban also marks the import data as subject to change, meaning later revisions remain possible. The figures therefore represent the latest currently published comparable period rather than a final full-year picture.

A 26% fall, driven largely by the comparison base

There are two accurate ways to describe Lebanon's early-2026 customs data. The first is the headline result: imports increased from LBP 728.6 trillion to LBP 756.3 trillion, a rise of 3.8 per cent, while customs receipts fell from almost LBP 47 trillion to LBP 34.8 trillion, a drop of 25.9 per cent.

The second emerges when those totals are broken down. Imports surged in January and February before slowing in March and falling in April and May. Customs receipts increased strongly in January and February, dropped in March and April, then rose again in May. Almost half of all customs receipts recorded in the first five months of 2025 came from April alone.

Without that month, customs receipts in the remaining four comparable months were 14.7 per cent higher in 2026.

The data therefore do not support a simple conclusion that Lebanon imported more throughout 2026 while consistently collecting less at customs. What they show is narrower: the overall five-month divergence is real, but it is heavily shaped by an exceptionally high customs-receipt figure in April 2025.

The official datasets identify where the gap comes from. They do not yet explain why that month was so different. For now, that is where the data stops.