Project Meridian: The Pentagon’s 120-day bet on the future of war

American military power has long rested on developing weapons that few adversaries can match. A new Pentagon initiative is examining what that technological advantage will require in future wars, just as recent operations have exposed how difficult some of today's most advanced weapons are to replace.

Project Meridian, commissioned by Secretary of War Pete Hegseth on September 30, will spend 120 days identifying capability gaps and recommending which technologies the United States should pursue, and will draw on priorities already established by the White House’s August 2026 National Security Science and Technology Strategy. Its final recommendations are due January 28, 2027.

Meridian comes at an awkward moment for American military planning. The war against Iran has consumed roughly half of prewar U.S. inventories of several important missile systems, according to estimates from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), while the industrial base expected to replace them has consolidated from 51 major defense contractors at the end of the Cold War to just five today. The exercise puts a fundamental assumption of American military power under scrutiny: that technological superiority can be converted into an advantage the United States can sustain in a prolonged war.

Mapping future warfare

Several of the technologies Meridian will examine are already altering how militaries operate and fight. Hegseth's memorandum singles out advances in “artificial intelligence, autonomy, [and] directed energy,” arguing that new technologies will “profoundly alter the character of warfare.”

MITRE, a nonprofit organization with a long-standing role in U.S. government research, has been commissioned to lead the project. Based in McLean, Virginia, it operates six federally funded research and development centers, including the National Security Engineering Center, which serves the Pentagon and intelligence community.

The project will be co-directed by Elon Musk, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Palmer Luckey, founder of Anduril, which develops autonomous aircraft, loitering munitions and AI-enabled military systems.

Meridian also gives the Pentagon a way to turn a new White House technology strategy into military choices. Released in August, the 2026 National Security Science and Technology Strategy places undersea warfare, space, and AI and autonomy among its central defense priorities, alongside capabilities including long-range precision strike and air superiority. It also emphasizes technologies that underpin those capabilities, including advanced manufacturing, semiconductors and hypersonic weapons.

From Midnight Hammer to Epic Fury

The Pentagon is grounding Meridian’s vision of future warfare in three operations conducted over the past 16 months: Midnight Hammer, Absolute Resolve and Epic Fury, which Hegseth’s memorandum cites as evidence of American “technological prowess.”

Midnight Hammer used some of the most specialized weapons in the American arsenal. In June 2025, more than 125 U.S. aircraft participated in attacks on the nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan. The B-2s dropped 14 30,000-pound bunker-busting bombs, their first use in combat, while a U.S. submarine launched more than two dozen Tomahawk cruise missiles. The B-2 missions lasted roughly 36 hours and covered more than 13,000 miles.

Seven months later, the United States launched Operation Absolute Resolve to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, in Caracas. More than 150 aircraft operated from 20 locations across the Western Hemisphere following months of intelligence collection, planning and rehearsals.

Operation Epic Fury, which began against Iran on February 28, 2026, has been longer and more intensive. U.S. Central Command reported more than 3,000 targets struck and 43 Iranian ships damaged or destroyed during its first seven days. U.S. forces have used B-1, B-2 and B-52 bombers, F-22 and F-35 fighters, MQ-9 drones and HIMARS launchers, while Patriot and THAAD interceptors have been used against Iranian missiles.

The munitions constraint

The same operations cited by the Pentagon as evidence of its technological advantage have drawn heavily on the weapons that make that advantage possible. 

By July 31, CSIS estimated that the war with Iran had consumed about half of initial U.S. inventories of three key missile systems, including Patriot and THAAD interceptors, and roughly one-third of four other categories of long-range and defensive missiles. CSIS concluded that enough remained for operations against Iran, but warned that depleted inventories could leave fewer weapons available for another major conflict, particularly with China.

More recent estimates indicate that the stock has fallen further. A September Congressional Budget Office analysis estimated that fighting since June 2025 had consumed between one-half and two-thirds of U.S. inventories of certain missile-defense interceptors. Earlier CSIS estimates put remaining Patriot inventories below 1,000 and THAAD inventories at about 250 by late July.

Replenishing those weapons will also be costly.  U.S. Central Command estimated that the Iran war had cost $43.6 billion through September 3, with $28.1 billion needed to replace expended munitions. The Pentagon's ability to rebuild those stocks is further constrained by lengthy procurement cycles. CSIS notes that weapons entering inventories today generally correspond to funding appropriated two to four years earlier, while munitions have historically competed for Pentagon funding with aircraft, ships and other major platforms.

Preparing for what comes next

Despite its ambitious scope, Meridian is but one of six initiatives Hegseth announced on September 30 at Marine Corps Base Quantico in Virginia, a major Marine base and training center south of Washington. Several address problems closely related to those Meridian will study.

A new Autonomous Warfare Command is intended to expand the use of autonomous systems across the military and become a four-star functional combatant command by October 2027. FORTRESS America focuses on military bases and supply chains, including domestic access to rare earths and semiconductors and larger reserves of munitions and fuel. The other initiatives establish a Corps of Cadets program and an Office of Religious Affairs, and propose a new military base.

Meridian will deliver its findings less than four months after that announcement. Its recommendations will arrive at a moment when the United States has demonstrated the reach and sophistication of its existing arsenal while confronting how quickly parts of that arsenal can be consumed. The final report will provide an early indication of which lessons the Pentagon is drawing from recent wars, and which capabilities it believes will matter in the next ones.