Climate change could result in significant job losses: the World Bank’s new report estimates that 43 million full‑time jobs may disappear by 2050 across 49 of the most vulnerable economies.
When extrapolated to all low‑ and middle‑income countries, that number could swell to a staggering 260 million lost jobs.

These losses are not hypothetical, they stem from real threats: rising heat, droughts, floods, and other climate shocks that undermine productivity in sectors like agriculture, construction, and water management. The report warns that, although total national employment may not drop drastically, the composition of work will shift dramatically, with some sectors shrinking and others gaining ground.

A ray of hope: Adaptation as a job engine

On the flip side, the report argues that smart investment in adaptation can turn risk into opportunity. By building climate-resilient infrastructure, improving water systems, and reorganizing agriculture, countries can generate 25 million additional, “more and better-paid” jobs in those same 49 economies.
If these strategies were applied more broadly across low- and middle-income countries, the bonus could rise to 150 million new jobs by 2050.

These are not fringe “green jobs”: many of the opportunities lie within existing sectors. The report emphasizes that adaptation-driven job creation would often improve the quality of work, making it more stable and resilient to climate risks.

Transition, not just transformation

The report also examines how low-emission (green) development could reshape labour markets. In many countries, shifting to cleaner economies offers net economic benefits in the short term, even if the total number of jobs doesn’t skyrocket.
But “net” is misleading: while some sectors may contract, others will expand, especially in emerging green technologies. This means the transition won’t be a simple “add jobs” story, it’s about reallocating labour, reskilling workers, and preparing for structural change.

What the World Bank recommends

To make the most of this opportunity, and minimize the risks, the report lays out several clear policy priorities:

Invest in human capital: governments must support education, reskilling, and training so workers can move into new roles.

Enable labour reallocation: systems should be in place to help workers transition from shrinking sectors into growth areas.

Mobilize financing: both private and public capital are required to fund adaptation and resilience projects at scale.

Protect vulnerable communities: as transitions happen, safety nets must be strengthened so those most exposed to risk aren’t left behind.

According to the World Bank, climate change presents a dual challenge for employment: on one hand, very real risks to jobs and livelihoods; on the other, a massive opportunity to build a more resilient, sustainable workforce.

The key lies in proactive investment. Without it, the labour market could suffer great losses. But with the right strategy, adaptation could become a powerful driver of economic growth and job creation.