South Yemen’s division enhances Houthis

Southern Yemen entered a new phase of political uncertainty this week after the Southern Transitional Council (STC) claimed sweeping control across the country’s southern governorates, including the strategic port city of Aden.

The shift marks one of the most dramatic power realignments since Yemen’s civil war erupted a decade ago, raising fresh questions about the future of the internationally recognized government and the stability of the anti-Houthi coalition. As rival factions reposition themselves, the prospect of Yemen slipping back into 2 separate states appears increasingly plausible.

A rapid and wide-ranging advance

The STC’s announcement followed a military campaign, codenamed “Promising Future,” launched last week and described by senior official Amr al-Bidh as a coordinated expansion of the group’s presence across all 8 southern provinces. Al-Bidh said that southern territory was now under the protection of STC-aligned forces, with the group aiming to unify command structures and prepare for renewed confrontation with the Houthis if required.

The advances reportedly faced limited resistance as Saudi-backed units withdrew from several key areas, including Hadramout and Al-Mahra (border regions critical to trade routes and long-standing smuggling networks). STC sources said their forces seized major infrastructure, from military bases to energy installations, and hoisted the flag of the former South Yemen on government buildings. Their push into Aden resulted in the takeover of the presidential palace and the departure of senior government officials, including Presidential Leadership Council head Rashad al-Alimi and Prime Minister Salem Saleh Bin Braik.

Political fallout and regional messaging

The internationally recognized government denounced the developments as an assault on its authority and a violation of power-sharing arrangements established under Saudi-sponsored initiatives. Al-Alimi warned that unilateral moves threatened the country’s fragile political framework and risked creating parallel centers of power.

Signs of regional unease also surfaced. A government official said Yemen’s airspace was briefly closed after the STC’s advances, leaving passengers stranded for hours. Although Saudi Arabia did not publicly confirm the closure, the move was widely viewed as a message to the separatists at a moment when Riyadh is trying to steer Yemen toward a broader political understanding with the Houthis.

For the United Arab Emirates (UAE), long an influential backer of the STC, the developments have reinforced perceptions of growing Emirati influence across southern Yemen. Analysts noted that the separatists now control almost the entirety of the southern half of the country, including Socotra, parts of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, and strategic islands once overseen by coalition forces.

Public mobilization and calls for independence

The STC’s military gains have galvanized supporters, who staged rallies in Aden and Hadramout calling for the restoration of an independent South Yemen. Demonstrators waved the South Yemen flag and portraits of STC leader Aidarous al-Zubaidi, celebrating what they described as a “historic victory” and pledging to remain in the streets until full independence is declared.

In conclusion, the STC’s rapid advance represents a turning point in Yemen’s long and complex conflict. While the group frames its actions as a bid to restore stability and confront extremist threats, its territorial consolidation has deepened rifts within the anti-Houthi camp and injected new tensions into regional diplomacy. As Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and international mediators assess the shifting landscape, Yemen’s political map may once again be on the verge of a profound and lasting transformation.