The collapse of Iran’s regional arc

The events of October 7, 2023 marked a pivotal turning point in the way the Israeli establishment perceives the threats it faces. This moment brought an end to a long-standing phase in which Israel relied on a policy of containing surrounding risks, ushering in a new approach centered on actively eliminating those threats rather than merely managing or limiting them.

The Iranian regime has long stood out as one of Israel’s primary concerns, viewed as the most serious threat to its security, whether through its nuclear program, its arsenal of ballistic missiles, or its regional influence via allied groups, most notably Hezbollah and Hamas.

Over the past two years, Israel has succeeded in significantly weakening both Hezbollah and Hamas, reducing the level of threat they pose to its lowest point since their inception. In coordination with the United States, Israel has also carried out a series of heavy blows against the Iranian regime, beginning with an initial round in June 2025. However, the most severe strike came during the most recent conflict, targeting the regime’s top leadership, including the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, along with a large number of senior figures.

Israel also managed to destroy key components of Iran’s ballistic and nuclear programs, as well as its drone manufacturing capabilities, in addition to striking critical infrastructure and centers of influence tied to the regime, amounting to a profound strategic blow to its capabilities.

Amid these wars and the losses suffered by Iran and its regional proxies, the fall of Bashar Al-Assad’s regime delivered a devastating blow to what has been known as the “Shiite Crescent.” It effectively severed the axis of influence and the strategic supply corridor stretching from Tehran to Beirut via Baghdad and Damascus, with direct repercussions on regional power dynamics.

The deep setbacks inflicted on Iran’s regional project have led to a noticeable decline in its influence, leaving behind a significant power vacuum, one that is likely to become more evident over time. As political science suggests, such vacuums rarely persist, as competing actors move swiftly to fill them and reshape the balance of power.

In this context, Israel appears well-positioned on multiple fronts to fill part of this vacuum, leveraging its military superiority and its ability to impose new realities on the ground, as seen in the Gaza Strip. In other arenas, such as Lebanon, Israel is working to translate its military gains into political outcomes by pushing toward arrangements that could eventually lead to a peace agreement, as stated by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other Israeli leaders. This trajectory has already begun through direct negotiations between Lebanon and Israel, aimed at reshaping the political and security landscape in both Lebanon and the broader region.

Parallel to Israel’s advances, a growing Arab–Turkish rapprochement is taking shape. While it remains at the level of coordination rather than a fully-fledged alliance, it seeks to engage in arenas where Iranian influence is receding and to restore a degree of balance to the regional order, preventing Israel from singularly imposing its dominance across the region and keeping the strategic landscape open to multiple possibilities.

A closer look at the political and diplomatic scene highlights this Arab–Turkish engagement in Syria, where interests converge in the post-Iranian phase. Reports indicate that both Saudi Arabia and Turkey have played an important role by engaging with President Trump to ease pressure on President Al-Sharaa regarding potential military intervention in Lebanon from the eastern front against Hezbollah.

This Arab–Turkish alignment extends to Lebanon as well, though the Arab presence there is more pronounced than the Turkish role, in an effort to stabilize both domestic and regional balances.

The visit of Saudi envoy Prince Yazid Bin Farhan to Beirut coincided with developments in the Oval Office, where the second direct meeting between Lebanon and Israel took place. This move underscores an effort to reaffirm Arab engagement in the Lebanese file and to avoid cementing the perception that Israel is seeking to fill the vacuum left by Iran’s declining influence in Lebanon, particularly amid increasing talk of a possible meeting between Joseph Aoun and Benjamin Netanyahu in Washington.

Lebanon, like much of the region, is experiencing the repercussions of this phase of declining Iranian influence, with all its complexities and overlapping regional and international dynamics, as political and military factors intertwine and the balance of power continues to shift.