The lack of reliable labor market data is obscuring the true impact of war and economic contraction on employment, incomes, and job opportunities in Lebanon.
The labor market’s missing numbers
The labor market is one of the key indicators reflecting the state of an economy and its ability to generate jobs and sustain growth. In Lebanon, however, assessing this indicator has become increasingly difficult due to the lack of regular official data that would allow for an accurate evaluation of unemployment levels and employment trends. Amid the structural challenges facing the economy and the cumulative effects of successive crises, the need for reliable, scientific indicators has become more pressing than ever to paint a realistic picture of the country's workforce.
At a time when the Lebanese economy is facing additional pressure due to security developments and declining activity across several productive and service sectors, questions are mounting about the true impact of these changes on employment, income levels, and job opportunities. Yet the absence of regular surveys and official data leaves any assessment of the issue open to varying estimates, highlighting the importance of accurate economic statistics as a prerequisite for sound policymaking and economic decision-making.
Missing data
In this context, economist Nassib Ghobril argues that "one of the fundamental challenges in assessing the Lebanese economy lies in the absence of regular labor market data."
Speaking to Nidaa Al Watan, he noted that "the first labor force survey in Lebanon was conducted between April 2018 and March 2019, while the latest official unemployment figures were released in 2022. Since then, no new official statistics have been published."
He stressed that "some figures circulated in the media remain questionable in terms of both their sources and the methodologies used to produce them," adding that this negatively affects the transparency of the Lebanese economy and the government's ability to make decisions based on accurate information.
Ghobril believes this reality should motivate authorities to strengthen the capacity of Lebanon's Central Administration of Statistics, the official body responsible for producing such data. The institution previously conducted labor market surveys in 2019 and 2022.
He emphasized the importance of carrying out surveys every three or six months to monitor developments in unemployment and employment trends. "In the United States, unemployment data is released monthly and financial markets, monetary authorities, and the private sector react accordingly. Many Arab countries publish these indicators quarterly because of their critical role in measuring economic performance."
He added that "the absence of this indicator opens the door to figures and statements with unclear foundations. Some are politically motivated or sensationalized, while others rely on fragmented data from specific sectors, making it difficult to form a comprehensive and objective understanding of Lebanon's labor market."
The impact of war
Ghobril affirmed that "the ongoing war has had a negative impact on the Lebanese economy across all sectors, including the labor market."
As an example, he pointed to pre-war expectations of a promising tourism season beginning with the Eid al-Fitr, Easter, and Eid al-Adha holidays. There had also been expectations of increased business tourism through regional conferences scheduled to be held in Lebanon, as well as the return of large numbers of expatriates for summer weddings, amid hopes that conditions would be more stable than the previous year.
"These activities would have created seasonal employment opportunities for thousands of workers across sectors linked to tourism and travel," he said.
According to the World Travel & Tourism Council, the tourism and travel sector provided jobs for more than 400,000 people in 2025. However, Ghobril noted that projections for 2026 are likely to differ significantly due to the war's impact on economic activity, particularly in tourism, which has been among the hardest-hit sectors.
He reiterated that "there is still no serious figure based on a scientific and objective survey of Lebanon's labor market," stressing the need for quarterly surveys to provide accurate and reliable data.
At the same time, he said it is possible to conclude that "the labor market has been affected by the war since March."
He cited survey findings showing that the incomes of broad segments of the population declined by 50% or more, while other groups reported income reductions ranging between 20% and 50%. Only around 19% of respondents said they had maintained their previous income levels.
"These indicators reflect one of the most significant consequences of the war on the labor market," he said, while warning that some figures currently circulating exploit existing circumstances without relying on clear scientific methodologies, underscoring the importance of credible field surveys.
He added that the same survey found that work stopped completely for 24% of Lebanese respondents in March, while 13% experienced temporary work interruptions. Meanwhile, 16% continued working on a part-time basis, and 18% reported that their work remained unaffected and continued as usual.
The economic dimension
From an economic standpoint, Ghobril noted that "the labor market has been significantly affected by the presence of more than 1.2 million displaced people, in addition to the depopulation of entire areas, particularly in the South, where residents were forced to leave their homes."
This, he said, directly affected their employment situations and job opportunities.
As for the rest of the country, he believes that the impact of the war is expected, but refrains from assigning precise percentages or figures in the absence of reliable scientific data.
Accordingly, he stressed the importance of enhancing transparency across the Lebanese economy through the publication of key economic indicators that are currently unavailable, foremost among them regular labor market and unemployment data.
He argued that such information is vital for decision-making by both executive and monetary authorities, while also helping the private sector develop medium- and long-term strategies and plans.
Contraction
In conclusion, Ghobril noted that hopes had been pinned on the summer season, particularly on the return of expatriates and the attraction of additional Arab and foreign tourists. However, recent security developments have completely altered the outlook.
He stressed that "the continuation of the war increases the scale of lost economic opportunities every day."
At the beginning of the year, forecasts suggested that Lebanon could achieve economic growth of at least 4% in 2026. Today, preliminary estimates point instead to an economic contraction ranging between 8% and 10%.
This means that the Lebanese economy is effectively losing between 12% and 15% in potential growth.
Ultimately, the state of Lebanon's labor market cannot be separated from the broader economic landscape, which continues to grow more complex due to accumulated crises and ongoing security developments. While the effects of the war on economic activity and employment opportunities are evident, the absence of regular official data remains the greatest obstacle to accurately measuring the true extent of the damage.
