The more energy a product needs, the higher its price

Amid the repercussions of regional conflict, soaring oil prices, and mounting import costs, Lebanese households are once again facing a rapidly accelerating wave of inflation that is increasingly affecting everyday life while incomes continue to decline. As regional and domestic wars persist, the economy appears to be moving toward a troubling path of high inflation coupled with stagnation, reviving memories of the crisis that erupted in 2019 and pushed Lebanon into stagflation, this time with an even heavier cost of living.

Which goods are most affected by inflation, and how are inflation rates being measured?

Lebanon’s annual inflation rate surged to 17.3% in March alone compared to the same month last year, and by 4.91% compared to February, marking its highest level since December, according to a report by the Central Administration of Statistics.

Transport prices recorded the sharpest increase, rising by 24.8% in March compared to 6% in February. Housing, water, electricity, and gas followed, with inflation reaching 20.3% in March versus 14.8% in February. Meanwhile, food products, including meat, grains, and oils — as well as non-alcoholic beverages, saw prices rise by 19.4% due to import dependency and higher shipping costs, compared to 16% in February.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased by 4.9%, up from 1.9% the previous month, representing the highest monthly increase since October 2023.

The drivers behind inflation

Much of this surge has been fueled by war-related risks and rising maritime shipping costs, which climbed from $2,500 to $4,500 per container due to higher oil prices and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, according to a Ministry of Economy report on the prices of essential goods during the first weeks of the war.

War-risk insurance premiums have also doubled, while oil prices rose from $69 per barrel in January 2026 to nearly $115 per barrel. This led to a 66% increase in diesel prices, with a tank reaching $25, and a 31% increase in gasoline prices, with a tank costing around $26.

As a result, a monthly salary of $1,000 is no longer sufficient for a small family of around four people. A simple calculation shows that food expenses alone cost between $400 and $600 at minimum. Monthly rent for a two-bedroom apartment, amid rising rental prices caused by displacement and the implementation of Lebanon’s rent liberalization law, now ranges between $500 and $600. This excludes transportation, education, healthcare, insurance, and other essential expenses, creating the need for additional financial support or a second income equivalent to the original salary.

As for April, the Central Administration of Statistics has not yet released its report, but the trajectory of rising prices continues steadily, with increases varying depending on the type and production cost of each product.

The impact of imported inflation

Data from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) for April 2026 indicates that global food prices continue to trend upward. The overall food price index rose by 1.6%, reaching its highest level in more than three years, reflecting ongoing inflationary pressures across international food markets.

Vegetable oils led the increase, rising between 5.9% monthly and up to 13% annually depending on the type. Meat prices followed, increasing by 1.2% monthly and around 6% annually. Cereals rose by 0.8% monthly, between 3% and 8% annually, while rice prices increased by 1.9%, reflecting a fragile balance between global supply and demand.

In contrast, sugar prices declined by 4.7% due to improved production forecasts in several major producing countries, partially offsetting the broader wave of rising prices.

This trajectory reflects the continued impact of intertwined global pressures on food markets, most notably volatile energy prices, supply chain disruptions, and climate-related changes, all of which are expected to keep inflationary pressures elevated for the foreseeable future.

Lebanon’s heavy dependence on imports

In this context, the head of Lebanon’s Food Importers Syndicate, Hani Bohsali, affirmed that any rise in global food prices immediately impacts the Lebanese market due to the country’s near-total reliance on imports.

He explained that “even limited increases in the prices of essential goods internationally result in larger increases locally because of shipping and insurance costs, making Lebanon one of the countries most vulnerable to waves of global food inflation.”

Bohsali also noted that “ongoing regional tensions globally and the war in Lebanon locally indicate that inflation will likely continue its upward trajectory. Suppliers are demanding Lebanese importers raise prices due to higher manufacturing input costs, including plastics, as well as increased transportation costs linked to rising global oil prices. This has also raised the cost of cardboard, gas, and other materials used in food production and packaging. If the situation continues as it is, commodity prices appear headed for further increases.”

He added that “inflation rates for food products vary depending on the amount of energy required to produce each item. Products requiring refrigeration, for example, carry higher costs than goods that do not require cooling. As a result, it is difficult to determine a single projected percentage for future price increases.”