The race to replace UNIFIL

More than 10 European Union countries are ready to contribute personnel or resources to a new mission in Lebanon. But five months before the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) ends its operational mandate on December 31, 2027, Europe is not preparing one simple replacement.

At least two different plans are moving forward. One would be an EU mission focused on training and strengthening the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), while the other would maintain an international security presence in southern Lebanon after UNIFIL withdraws. President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam support keeping an international presence in the south. Speaker Nabih Berri also supports a replacement force, but wants it to remain under the UN flag and tied to Resolution 1701, while Hezbollah opposes a new international force with broader powers. 

What exactly did the EU announce?

On September 1, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said more than 10 of the bloc’s 27 member states were willing to provide personnel and resources for the planned mission. “The EU is not seeking to replace UNIFIL,” she said. Instead, the mission would advise and train the LAF including on border and maritime security, with the aim of strengthening the Lebanese state’s ability to provide security across its territory.

On June 4, the EU approved a new €100 million package through the European Peace Facility, bringing total support to the LAF under the fund to €182 million since 2022. The European Peace Facility is a €17 billion EU fund used to finance military and defence support for partner countries, including equipment and training. The new Lebanon package is non-lethal and combines equipment with training. It is intended to strengthen the army’s control of Lebanese territory, improve border and maritime security and surveillance, protect key military sites and expand military healthcare capacities. Part of the assistance will also support a 5th Land Border Regiment along Lebanon’s northeastern border with Syria.

Which countries have publicly stepped forward?

France and Italy have taken the lead on the post-UNIFIL discussion. In June,  French President Emmanuel Macron and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said their countries would work together on an international coalition to support Lebanon after UNIFIL, while also backing the creation of an EU security and defense mission in autumn 2026.

Separately, Ireland, Austria and Spain had proposed an EU military assistance mission in late 2025 to train and support the LAF. Ireland has since formally backed the Common Security and Defence Policy mission and said it intends to contribute to it.

Türkiye, although not an EU member, has also publicly offered to take part in post-UNIFIL efforts. During Lebanese President Joseph Aoun’s official visit to Ankara on July 30, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said at a joint press conference that Türkiye wanted to participate in initiatives aimed at supporting security and safeguarding Lebanon’s sovereignty after UNIFIL’s withdrawal. Erdoğan also said Türkiye would continue supporting the LAF and strengthening Lebanon’s institutional capacities.

Germany and Austria have also publicly expressed interest in a role after UNIFIL. In July, German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul proposed examining an EU-mandated force to prevent a security vacuum in southern Lebanon. Austria had gone further in May, when its special envoy Arad Benkö told Lebanese Foreign Minister Youssef Raggi that Vienna was ready to participate in any international force that succeeds UNIFIL.

How does this connect to UNIFIL’s withdrawal?

UNIFIL currently has 7,462 peacekeepers from 46 countries. Among its largest European contingents are Italy with 738 personnel, Spain with 677, France with 609, Ireland with 274, Germany with 185, Austria with 160, Finland with 144 and Poland with 139.

Security Council Resolution 2790 extended UNIFIL’s operational mandate for a final time until December 31, 2026. From that date, the mission is expected to begin an orderly withdrawal lasting up to one year, meaning the drawdown will continue through 2027.

The European initiatives are therefore being discussed before UNIFIL leaves, in an effort to avoid a security gap. They do not all have the same role. The proposed EU mission would focus mainly on training and supporting the LAF, while the French-Italian initiative concerns a possible international security presence in southern Lebanon after UNIFIL.

Any new UN-backed force would also require Lebanon’s consent and approval from the Security Council, which would have to agree on its mandate, size and responsibilities. Lebanon has traditionally submitted a formal request when seeking UNIFIL’s renewal, but Resolution 2790 described the current extension as the mission’s final one, meaning a successor arrangement would require a new decision rather than another routine renewal.

Lebanese leaders broadly support keeping an international presence in the south, although they differ over its form. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun has welcomed the French-Italian proposal for a European force, while Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam has said Lebanon wants a UN force to remain responsible for monitoring, reporting and coordination. Speaker Nabih Berri also supports a successor force but has said it should remain under the UN flag. Hezbollah has opposed the deployment of a new international force, while Israel has rejected continued international troop deployment after UNIFIL and said the Lebanese Army should instead assume responsibility for security in the area.

For now, no final post-UNIFIL arrangement has been agreed on. The coming months will determine whether Lebanon moves toward a UN-backed successor force, a European-led presence, or a combination of international support alongside an expanded Lebanese Army role.