Lebanon’s labor market crisis is deepened by weak investment, economic contraction, and the absence of regular unemployment data needed to understand job losses and design effective policies.
Lebanon’s labor market in the Dark
In an economy that lacks regular labor market surveys, unemployment shifts from a measurable indicator into a crisis whose size and direction are difficult to determine. The absence of monthly or quarterly data on jobs, unemployment, and employment deprives the Lebanese economy of a key tool to monitor its ability to create jobs. It also weakens policymakers’ ability to design economic policies based on accurate indicators, at a time when financial and investment imbalances are deepening and productive sectors are struggling to expand.
The labor market crisis cannot be separated from the path of economic growth and investment. Continuous contraction does not only reduce GDP; it also affects companies’ investment and hiring decisions, while weak capital inflows reduce new projects and the jobs linked to them. Between a shrinking economy, investments that remain below needs, and data that is not updated regularly, the labor market faces a double challenge: fewer jobs and no accurate figures showing the scale of the loss.
Unemployment without an indicator
Economic expert Dr. Nassib Ghobril told Nidaa Al Watan that “most countries publish regular labor market data, monthly or quarterly, because these figures have a direct impact on confidence in the economy and financial markets, in addition to their role in shaping monetary policies and interest rate decisions.”
He explains that “Lebanon currently does not have an official and regular database that allows for accurately determining the direction of the labor market. The first comprehensive survey was conducted in 2018 and 2019, then updated in 2022 by the Central Administration of Statistics, but it was not followed by regular surveys. The World Bank also conducted a labor market study in 2023, but the results varied significantly, with Central Administration of Statistics data showing an unemployment rate of around 29%, compared with 11% according to the World Bank’s 2023 study.”
According to Ghobril, the International Labour Organization has not provided “a regular survey determining Lebanon’s unemployment rate, but rather focused on labor market trends and the consequences of the war. Therefore, the Lebanese economy still lacks a regular official indicator revealing the actual level of unemployment and the economy’s ability to create or lose jobs.”
Growth disappearing…
Ghobril stresses that “Lebanon needs a labor market survey issued at least every three months to measure the economy’s ability to create or lose jobs,” considering that this “indicator is an essential element for any economy seeking to strengthen transparency and improve the accuracy of economic policies.”
He adds: “In the absence of this data, economic growth trends can be used to understand the scale of losses affecting the labor market. Before the outbreak of the support war, expectations pointed to growth of around 3% in 2023, but the economy actually contracted by 0.5%. In 2024, estimates expected growth between 3% and 4%, before the expansion of Israeli attacks starting in September pushed the economy toward a contraction of 7.4%.”
He continues: “As for 2026, expectations at the beginning of the year suggested possible growth between 4% and 5%, before the picture changed due to continued security and economic pressures, with current estimates now pointing toward a contraction between 8% and 9%.”
An additional cost
Ghobril believes that “the gap between expected growth and actual performance reflects the scale of the ‘missed opportunities’ facing the Lebanese economy. In 2026, instead of achieving growth between 4% and 5%, the economy is heading toward contraction between 8% and 9%, meaning missed opportunities equivalent to 12% to 14% of economic growth.”
He explains that “this loss does not stop at GDP but extends directly to the labor market. The more growth declines, the less companies are able to expand, invest, and hire. Businesses delay investment decisions and postpone creating new jobs, putting pressure on the labor market and limiting opportunities for new workers to enter.”
He points out that “the consequences of the war directly affected several sectors, especially tourism, where some businesses were forced during periods of conflict to place employees on leave and reduce salaries, reflecting the decline in economic activity and demand.”
Missing investment
Ghobril places weak investment “at the center of the employment crisis,” noting that “foreign direct investment in new projects has remained extremely limited. It reached around $3.5 million in 2024 and increased to around $10.7 million in 2025.”
He considers these figures “still extremely small compared with the needs of the Lebanese economy, especially since new investment projects are among the main channels for creating jobs and stimulating economic activity.”
The gap becomes even clearer when comparing Lebanon with Syria. Foreign investment in newly announced projects in Syria reached around $5 billion in 2025, compared with less than $11 million in Lebanon during the same year.
Business environment holding back investment
Ghobril does not attribute weak investment only to the war, but also places it within a broader framework of long-standing weaknesses affecting Lebanon’s business environment and investment climate. He stresses the “need to improve economic competitiveness, reduce operating costs for companies, enforce the rule of law, modernize and rehabilitate infrastructure, and develop the business environment and regulations governing economic activity.”
He emphasizes that “these factors do not only affect capital inflows, but also limit the economy’s ability to create new projects and expand existing ones, and therefore its ability to create sustainable jobs. However, the absence of regular data makes it impossible to determine how many jobs new investments could create or how many jobs the economy has lost due to weak investment.”
The role of the private sector
Ghobril places the private sector and individual entrepreneurship at the center of job creation and economic recovery, saying that “providing a favorable investment environment is the main gateway to establishing businesses, attracting capital and technology, and expanding economic activity.”
At the same time, he stresses that “the role of the state is not to be the main employer of the economy, but to build the environment that allows the private sector to invest and expand.” Citing an International Monetary Fund report, he points to around 334,000 Lebanese employees and workers in the public sector, considering that “the oversized public sector cannot serve as an alternative to a productive economy capable of creating sustainable jobs.”
Ghobril concludes that “addressing the labor market crisis does not begin with increasing public sector employment, but with rebuilding an economy capable of producing jobs. This requires developing laws, improving public administration efficiency, upgrading infrastructure, reducing the cost of doing business, increasing economic competitiveness, and restoring investor confidence.”
Lebanon’s labor market remains trapped between an economic contraction limiting job creation and the absence of regular data that accurately reveals unemployment levels and trends. Without updated indicators, the state struggles to assess actual losses or build policies capable of addressing labor market weaknesses.
Restoring the ability to create sustainable jobs does not begin by expanding public employment, but by stimulating investment, reducing the cost of doing business, and reforming infrastructure and regulations. Jobs are not created in a shrinking economy, but in one that restores confidence, investment, and productive capacity.
