Who commands Europe's future?

Recent reports have shed new light on a sweeping United States 28-point plan, which has ignited fierce debate over its implications for Ukraine’s future.

The controversy has also been raised regarding Europe’s criticism of being sidelined in resolving a key European issue, which the US has taken the lead in.

What does the 28-point plan entail?

Under the terms, Ukrainian forces would withdraw entirely from the remaining parts of the Donbas region (meaning the Donetsk and Luhansk), transforming the area into “a neutral demilitarized buffer zone, internationally recognized as territory belonging to the Russian Federation.” The plan also calls for freezing the current frontlines in the south, namely Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, rather than returning these regions to Kyiv, “which will mean de facto recognition along the line of contact.”

Militarily, Ukraine would need to sharply downsize its armed forces to around 600,000 personnel; a substantial reduction from its current strength (with almost 900,000 active duty military staff). The proposal reportedly curbs its long-range strike capabilities, limiting what Kyiv can do in terms of projecting power.

Meanwhile, NATO would be barred from stationing troops on Ukrainian soil, and Ukraine would agree to never join the alliance.

United States security guarantees and economic incentives to Ukraine

In exchange for these difficult concessions, the United States would provide security guarantees to Ukraine. However, the exact contours of these guarantees are vague in the draft. While the plan envisions a coordinated military response should Russia violate the deal, analysts warn that the terms may not amount to a robust security commitment. The draft claims that should Russia invade Ukraine, “in addition to a decisive coordinated military response, all global sanctions will be reinstated, recognition of the new territory and all other benefits of this deal will be revoked.”

What is striking is the somewhat resemblance to the Gaza peace plan, whereby the Ukraine 28-point plan would be “monitored and guaranteed by the Peace Council, headed by President Donald J. Trump.”

On the economic front, the proposal suggests using $100 billion in frozen Russian assets to help rebuild Ukraine. The latter would also receive support to modernize its energy infrastructure, including gas pipelines and storage. The “United States will work with Ukraine to jointly restore, develop, modernize, and operate Ukraine’s gas infrastructure, including pipelines and storage facilities,” while Ukraine’s “Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant will be commissioned under [UN nuclear agency] IAEA supervision, and the electricity generated will be shared equally between Russia and Ukraine in a 50:50 ratio.”

Interestingly, the plan would reintegrate Russia into the global economy, including re-admission to the G8, provided Moscow does not reinitiate hostilities.

Uneasy reactions: Ukraine, the Kremlin and Europe

Unsurprisingly, the plan has drawn sharp criticism. Some Ukrainian officials have called it a “capitulation,” arguing that it requires giving up essential pieces of sovereignty.

Politically, the proposal demands Ukraine enshrine permanent neutrality, as well as grant official status to Russian language and the Russian Orthodox Church. The latter is seen by Russians and Russian-speaking eastern Ukrainians as securing fairness and inclusivity, while critics view it as cultural concessions that risk undermining Ukraine’s identity.

Nevertheless, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has signaled willingness to discuss the plan. He has stressed, though, that any peace must be “respectful of our independence, our sovereignty, and the dignity of the Ukrainian people.” The Kremlin, on the other hand, has remained publicly noncommittal; some statements claim no formal negotiations are ongoing.

Meanwhile European allies are also wary. Many fear that such a deal, negotiated primarily by US and Russian officials, sidelines Europe’s role and could legitimize Russia’s wartime gains. Since Russia launched its invasion in February 2022, Ukraine has emerged as the leading recipient of US foreign assistance. This is the first instance since the era of President Harry Truman, when Europe received substantial aid under the Marshall Plan to rebuild after World War II (1939-1945), that a European nation has occupied this position. Until 2024, Washington provided over $125 billion, trumping any other country (including the European Union). This has given the US a significant leverage regarding any peace deal concerning the Ukraine-Russia War. Europe’s reliance as well on American backing, both for Ukraine and even the continent (especially through military and nuclear support), makes it quite difficult for the Europeans to challenge and oppose Washington’s proposals.

Alas, at its core, this 28-point roadmap raises a fundamental question: Is this a genuine attempt to engineer an enforceable ceasefire, or a diplomatic maneuver that forces Kyiv into an untenable trade-off? Either way, its reception will shape not only Ukraine’s fate but also the balance of power in Europe for years to come.